The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet tomorrow. Given that the rise was driven by non-core components, the tightening cycle is unlikely to be restarted. But there’s a growing risk that policymakers decide to delay the start of monetary easing until much later in 2024.
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