US Housing Market Focus Mortgage borrowers well placed to weather slowdown The upcoming economic slowdown brings with it the risk of a rise in mortgage delinquencies. However, tighter mortgage lending standards since the financial crisis means borrowers today are more... 8th August 2019 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Why is rental growth accelerating? The acceleration in rental growth to 3.7% y/y in March, a 12-month high, does not reflect tighter rental markets. Instead, and in contrast to what we had expected, the rise in earnings growth to a 10... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus One million vacant homes a risk to our forecasts If a large number of the over one million homes being kept vacant as the owner does not wish to sell were to be brought to market, house prices are likely to drop by 5% to 10%. But while slowing house... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Slowing home sales good news for the rental market Home sales are set to tread water over the next couple of years, which is good news for the rental sector. If Americans aren’t buying homes, many will look to rent one instead. Admittedly, the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Causes of weakening housing demand Rising interest rates, declining house price expectations and cuts to the tax advantages of owning a home have all weighed on housing demand since the turn of the year. Of these, the drop in house... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How concerning is the housing market slowdown? Housing market activity has slowed since the start of the year, as rising interest rates and record low affordable inventory has weighed on home buying sentiment. With interest rates set to rise... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Where are the risks from property greatest? In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why is property so often the source of trouble? It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What’s holding single-family starts back? Despite high homebuilder confidence, single-family housing starts have lost momentum since the start of the year. A combination of lot and labour shortages, and the high price of materials, is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are housing stocks signalling the next correction? In contrast to 2005, the recent surge and subsequent retreat in homebuilder share prices is not a signal that the housing market is set for a damaging correction. Back then, homebuilder share prices... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Buying still better than renting in the long run Based on the current tax environment, our forecasts for house prices and rents show that buying a median-priced home is better than renting one for any holding period of six years or longer. By making... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How tight are mortgage lending standards? Smaller down payments and rising debt-to-income ratios might be an indication that mortgage lending standards are once again being relaxed to dangerous levels. But the Ability to Repay rule is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why has rental growth slowed? The recent slowdown in rental growth does not reflect an easing in tenant demand but rather seems to reflect a surge in the number of new multifamily developments being brought to market. As... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Tax reform likely to give housing market a boost President Trump’s plan to raise the standard deduction would make the mortgage interest deduction less valuable, which has raised some concerns in the housing industry. But, if anything, with... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Rising interest rates - how high would be too high? Given their low starting point, and a concurrent rise in income growth, we are optimistic that the housing market can withstand even our above-consensus forecast for mortgage interest rates to reach 5... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus A closer look at the rental vacancy rate Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those... 8th December 2016 · 2 mins read
