US Housing Market Focus House prices still have further to fall House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus A double-dip in house prices would not be a disaster The US government’s support for first-time buyers may not have boosted housing activity by as much as has been suggested. The good news is that this means more of the recovery is based on fundamental... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing to the rescue? The stronger than expected housing recovery will provide a welcome boost to consumption and employment. But such spill-over effects will not be large enough to prevent a prolonged period of sluggish... 23rd November 2009 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing recovery built on fundamentals, not the tax credit The US government’s support for first-time buyers may not have boosted housing activity by as much as has been suggested. The good news is that this means more of the recovery is based on fundamental... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing correction nearing the end, but it’s not over yet The housing market appears to have turned a corner. Activity has levelled off and housing may now be significantly undervalued. Nonetheless, the large inventory overhang means that prices could still... 15th June 2009 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the US housing market stabilising? The latest round of news on the housing market has been surprisingly upbeat but don’t be fooled into believing that the sector has bottomed out. 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Financial losses from the consumer credit binge to reach $700bn We estimate that over the next three years the financial losses resulting from the surge in defaults on US mortgages and other consumer loans will add up to close to $700bn, or 6% of US GDP . Roughly... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How much further will US house prices fall? Houses are still substantially over-valued even though prices have already fallen by around 10% on the Case-Shiller national index . An additional decline of between 10% and 15% this year would put... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What does the sub-prime crisis mean for the wider economy? The meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector will have a significant impact on the US economy because of its consequences for the housing market, even if there are no contagion effects on the rest of... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing, inflation and the US economy: an update of our views For close to a year now we have been predicting that a sharp housing-led slowdown in US economic growth would take hold in 2007. However, two recent developments have convinced us that the slowdown... 19th September 2006 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Where will the housing slowdown hit hardest? The end of the housing boom, which is apparently now underway, is arguably the biggest risk to the US economic outlook over the next couple of years . In previous Focus pieces we have argued that even... 27th February 2006 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus US house prices have risen by a little over 50% in the past five years, leaving housing looking more US house prices have risen by a little over 50% in the past five years, leaving housing looking more over-valued than ever before. Based on a range of benchmarks including incomes and rents, . we... 20th October 2005 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus US housing boom entering its final stages The seemingly unstoppable US housing boom continues unabated with activity at high levels and prices rising sharply . . There are some disturbing parallels emerging, however, between the boom in the... 22nd June 2005 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus US house price boom set to end US house prices have staged the biggest continuous rise in their history. The resulting overvaluation may not be as severe as that in the UK and Australia, but it is still big enough to convince us... 20th July 2004 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus The US housing market is a bubble waiting to burst The rate of increase of US house prices has been particularly strong over the past 3 years. Indeed, house price inflation even accelerated in 2001, buoyed by falling mortgage interest rates, defying... 28th July 2003 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Mortgage refinancing in the US: the boom is over The continued strength of consumer spending in the US over the past two years, despite a recession and big stockmarket losses, is principally due to the boom in mortgage refinancing, caused by low... 2nd December 2002 · 1 min read
