US Economics Weekly Misery index hits 28-year high Even though the number of Google searches for "double dip recession" has surged and the old fashioned misery index has increased to a 28-year high, Americans are probably not quite as gloomy as those... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first The data released last week strongly suggested that the recovery has hit its second "soft patch" which, for an expansion that is less than two years old, is troubling to say the least. Admittedly... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Twin threats to banks' income It's ironic that in the same week that the movie of the book "Too Big To Fail" was first premiered on American television, it was revealed that the net income of US banks was higher in the first... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US spends an unhealthy amount on health care There is little prospect of getting the Federal deficit under control in the long-term unless spending on health care is reined in or, at the very least, not allowed to continue growing at a faster... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's driven the rebound in exports? It's taken over two years, but the US is at last exporting as much as it was before the recession. And the lower dollar may soon give exports an extra lift. Nevertheless, as imports are rising just as... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Treasury getting perilously close to debt ceiling In all likelihood, the Federal government will hit its debt ceiling at the start of next week, although the Treasury can use a number of accounting tricks to delay the day of reckoning, perhaps until... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still too hopeful on growth Even after the downward revision announced at last week's first ever post-policy meeting press briefing, the Fed's new forecasts for economic growth still look a bit optimistic. In the light of the... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US credit status will remain under threat There are some good reasons why S&P's decision to put America's AAA credit rating on negative watch made more of a splash in the media than in the markets. Admittedly, the fiscal position in the US is... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarter Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still a long way from raising rates Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What will the end of QE2 mean for the markets? In contrast to the widespread view that Treasury yields will jump once the Fed concludes its second round of asset purchases, we think that yields could actually fall. It is even possible that the end... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter growth flagging We had originally expected first-quarter GDP growth to be pretty strong, possibly even as high as 4% at an annualised pace. The more incoming data we see, however, the more we suspect that growth will... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won't be swayed by higher inflation The statement issued after last week's FOMC meeting made it pretty clear that the Fed wouldn't be rushing to tighten policy in response to the recent surge in commodity prices, at least not while core... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt limit spat has unleashed QE3 by stealth One of the unintentional side effects of the current impasse in Congress over raising the debt ceiling is that it has led to a significant expansion of the monetary base. Indeed, the drop in the... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does $100pb oil mean for the US? The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
