US Economics Weekly The sizeable fiscal cliff We are still assuming that Congress will agree to extend the bulk of the tax cuts due to expire at the end of the year and to postpone most of the automatic spending cuts set to take place early next... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US economy should shrug off Greek exit All things considered, we don't expect Greece's eventual exit from the euro-zone to have any devastating impact on the US economy, even if the exit from the single currency is compounded by a Greek... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling gasoline prices to support the recovery At least some of the recent easing in economic growth is due to the surge in gasoline prices earlier in the year. The most recent fall in gasoline prices should therefore prevent a more sustained or... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Demand for credit strengthening There are still fears of another sharp summer slowdown in economic growth, particularly after another disappointing gain in payrolls in April, but we think that the recovery will hold up better this... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed no nearer QE3...or higher rates The upward revisions to the Fed’s forecasts for core inflation published after last week’s policy meeting have largely been overlooked. But they actually play a crucial role in explaining why the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Resilience of consumption growth may not last The likely acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter is encouraging, especially at a time when the recovery in the industrial sector appears to be running out of steam. But while we do... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The hidden fiscal boost The rebound in tax receipts means that, for the first time in three years, State and local governments might soon be in a position to boost their spending. Over the next couple of years, this may... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery remains solid The US economy still appears to be headed in the right direction. We admit that economic growth isn't going to be spectacular this year, probably around 2.0%. Nevertheless, there would appear to be... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fret about higher Treasury yields Even a larger and longer-lasting rise in 10-year Treasury yields than the one seen in recent weeks is unlikely to derail the economic recovery. Just as tight credit conditions meant that the previous... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Do rising equity prices offset higher gas prices? Households are currently being subjected to a number of diverse and often opposing economic forces, but most will cancel each other out and we still anticipate consumption growth of just above 2% this... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Current account deficit no concern The widening in the current account deficit to more than 3% of GDP at the end of last year is no big concern. The US has been running deficits of more than 3% of GDP for most of the past dozen years... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still looking at ways to add to the policy mix The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the Fed was considering a new programme of bond buying, albeit with the twist that it could use large-scale reverse repo operations to offset the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Banking sector getting stronger Much attention has focused on the surge in European banking stocks since the ECB first announced its LTRO bank lending scheme. But over the same period, US banking stocks have also risen by 20%. And... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in oil price not big enough to pose a threat The recent resurgence in the price of crude oil has led to speculation that, in a repeat of what happened at this time last year, a spike in energy prices could undermine real economic growth just... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mind the output gap trap It is easy to fall into the trap of debating how large or small the output gap is. The simple truth, however, is that no one knows. But while the output gap is not directly observable, the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Participation rate will keep on falling It has been suggested that the reported decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3% in January, from a high of 10.0% in February 2009, is not nearly as good as it looks because... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
