US Economics Weekly Is the US headed for recession? Our baseline view is still that the US economy will avoid a recession, albeit only narrowly. Furthermore, if there is a recession, we suspect it would be a fairly modest one because the most cyclical... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is structural unemployment a problem? One reason why wage growth may have not fallen much below 2% could be that the structural unemployment rate has risen by more than most estimates suggest. The extent of skills and location mismatching... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses are cash rich, but reluctant to invest Despite the explosion in Federal government debt, the US economy as a whole has been deleveraging since the financial crisis erupted in 2008. The reduction in debt by the household and financial... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in core inflation makes Fed's life difficult The marked rebound in the rate of core inflation since late last year is one of the key reasons why Fed officials are more wary of implementing further quantitative easing now. Some of the recent... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Policymakers lay out the case for more action Policymakers were back in the spotlight last week, with hopes growing that we could now see further monetary and fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately, we doubt that the Fed will have much success with what... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed increasingly likely to launch Operation Twist On balance, we still think that the acceleration in core inflation will prevent the Fed from undertaking a third round of quantitative easing, even after the disappointing August payrolls figures. The... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Halfway through a lost decade By the end of this year, it will be five years since the housing bubble burst. Given that the economy is likely to grow by no more than 2% this year, the US is only halfway through a lost decade. What... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deficit in demand to hinder economy for years Much more important than whether or not the US economy contracts for one quarter or more is that a fundamental deficit in demand means there is little prospect of a significant and sustained... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may yet need more policy tricks If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising While we think that the chances of another recession are relatively low, the risks are certainly rising. More generally, the recent run of weak economic data and the sharp falls in equity prices... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in GDP growth no thanks to consumers Our calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated a little to 2.3% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the first, despite the fact that consumption growth apparently slowed to less than... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling impasse drags on The impasse over raising the debt limit continued last week, although it looks like the two sides are edging closer to a deal ahead of the 2nd August deadline set by the Treasury. If there's no deal... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US external position not such a big risk to the dollar Although the US is running a budget deficit equal to 9% of GDP and a current account deficit of 3% of GDP, its net external liabilities at 17% of GDP are not actually that large. Last year, they even... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumers still facing a number of headwinds The sharp drop back in energy prices last week should provide a much needed boost to real consumption in the third quarter. Unfortunately, that boost from falling prices will only be temporary... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
