US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Vehicle sales could drive faster GDP growth Favourable pricing and financing conditions mean that the pent up demand for new vehicles created during the recession could soon be released. Such a surge in new vehicle sales has the capacity to... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is America a country of part-timers? The sharp rise in the share of employees working part-time may not be as big a concern as it seems at first sight. After all, most of these extra part-timers are still working between 30 and 35 hours... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 a success after all? The early evidence suggests that the Fed’s latest policy actions have already started to have their desired effect on financial markets. But there are large question marks over whether these moves... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The fiscal cliff – some scenarios We think there is a 70% chance that Congress will reach a last minute deal to prevent the $600bn of tax hikes and spending cuts that form the fiscal cliff from kicking in at the start of 2013. But... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are student loans the next bubble? The near-quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to $900bn, or 6% of GDP, is a concern, but we don't believe it represents a serious threat to the US financial system or that it will... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Household deleveraging on track Households may be two-thirds the way through the necessary deleveraging process. What’s more, a larger proportion of the remaining deleveraging will be achieved by incomes growing rather than debt... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop back in core inflation likely to be gradual We now expect the annual core CPI inflation rate to decline only modestly this year, from 2.3% in May to slightly below 2.0% by year-end, before falling more markedly next year to 1.5% by end 2013. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Could a surge in dividends boost the economy? If other firms follow Apple's lead in paying an annual dividend then, given the amount of stockpiled cash that the corporate sector is currently hoarding, the resulting boost to personal income and... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus US will continue to outperform There are reasons to believe that over the next two years the US will perform better than the other major economies. This would build on the trend of the last four years that has seen a disappointing... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are America’s fiscal prospects even worse than Europe’s? At first glance, America's fiscal prospects are worse than those of the peripheral euro-zone countries, although the US does have a few key advantages that mean it should continue to enjoy very low... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read