US Economics Focus State and local governments will partly offset Federal drag State and local governments have sorted out their finances to such an extent that they will soon be in a position to raise spending and, consequently, boost both GDP and job growth. This will offset... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rising oil and gas production to have small impact on GDP Even if US oil and gas production does continue to expand at the breakneck pace seen over the past few years, the overall impact on GDP growth will be muted. The mining sector as a whole accounted for... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rise in confidence never looked justified The rise in consumer confidence to a five-year high in November can’t be explained by developments in equity prices, gasoline prices, the labour market or the housing market. As such, it’s no surprise... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus 2013 – make or break? 2013 could be the year in which a number of factors that have been holding back the US economic recovery are removed. This doesn’t mean the economy will soon start firing on all cylinders. But it does... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Vehicle sales could drive faster GDP growth Favourable pricing and financing conditions mean that the pent up demand for new vehicles created during the recession could soon be released. Such a surge in new vehicle sales has the capacity to... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is America a country of part-timers? The sharp rise in the share of employees working part-time may not be as big a concern as it seems at first sight. After all, most of these extra part-timers are still working between 30 and 35 hours... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 a success after all? The early evidence suggests that the Fed’s latest policy actions have already started to have their desired effect on financial markets. But there are large question marks over whether these moves... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The fiscal cliff – some scenarios We think there is a 70% chance that Congress will reach a last minute deal to prevent the $600bn of tax hikes and spending cuts that form the fiscal cliff from kicking in at the start of 2013. But... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are student loans the next bubble? The near-quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to $900bn, or 6% of GDP, is a concern, but we don't believe it represents a serious threat to the US financial system or that it will... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Household deleveraging on track Households may be two-thirds the way through the necessary deleveraging process. What’s more, a larger proportion of the remaining deleveraging will be achieved by incomes growing rather than debt... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop back in core inflation likely to be gradual We now expect the annual core CPI inflation rate to decline only modestly this year, from 2.3% in May to slightly below 2.0% by year-end, before falling more markedly next year to 1.5% by end 2013. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would trigger QE3? Unless the economy loses a lot more momentum or the eventual financial contagion from the crisis in Europe is much greater than we expect, the Fed is unlikely to launch a third round of asset... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
