US Economics Focus Could a surge in dividends boost the economy? If other firms follow Apple's lead in paying an annual dividend then, given the amount of stockpiled cash that the corporate sector is currently hoarding, the resulting boost to personal income and... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus US will continue to outperform There are reasons to believe that over the next two years the US will perform better than the other major economies. This would build on the trend of the last four years that has seen a disappointing... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are America’s fiscal prospects even worse than Europe’s? At first glance, America's fiscal prospects are worse than those of the peripheral euro-zone countries, although the US does have a few key advantages that mean it should continue to enjoy very low... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Housing will soon help the economy, but not by much With the downturn in the housing market drawing to a close, housing should soon start to boost economic growth. But as housing now makes up only a small share of the economy, the sector is unlikely to... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What explains the rebound in core inflation? The conventional wisdom is that the rebound in core inflation mainly reflects a permanent rebound in the growth rate of housing costs. However, the pick up over the past few months is more to do with... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does inflation offer a way out of the debt crisis? Deliberately embracing higher inflation as a way out of the sovereign debt crisis could have disastrous consequences. Instead, for most advanced countries, wherever it is feasible, a combination of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 coming? The run of unexpectedly poor economic data has inevitably led to speculation that the Fed could be forced to adopt QE3. However, there are three reasons why we doubt that the Fed would be willing to... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus America may yet embrace trade protection Trade protection is far from an ideal policy, and indeed it carries serious dangers, but in current circumstances it may offer America the only way out of its difficulties. 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Poor quality of new jobs is an additional concern Over the past year, payroll employment has increased by just 1.1 million, reversing only a small number of the 8.3 million jobs lost during the recession. What makes the labour market recovery even... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is offshoring undermining the labour market recovery? The continued weakness of US jobs growth can partly be explained by offshoring. Tempted by lower labour costs and lower corporate taxes overseas, multinational firms are expanding employment abroad... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Has the US really avoided its own lost decade? The conventional wisdom is that America has avoided a repeat of the recent Japanese experience because its policymakers acted much more quickly and aggressively to prevent the economy slipping into a... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What do higher commodity prices mean for the US? The recent sharp rises in agricultural commodity prices will boost inflation a little, help keep real consumption growth subdued and narrow the trade deficit. But the gains in prices seen so far are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Mismatching has raised the structural unemployment rate 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
