US Economics Focus Resurgence in labour force has further to run The resurgence in the labour force over the past year mainly reflects the ongoing boost to participation from increasing opportunities for women to combine parenthood with work, more young people... 11th December 2023 · 15 mins read
US Economics Focus Could an AI boom transform the budget outlook? With the budget deficit rebounding over the last year and Congress characterised by partisan dysfunction, the odds of a full-blown fiscal crisis developing over the next decade are rising. The US... 4th December 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
US Economics Focus Wage growth to slow as labour market conditions ease As the economy slides into a mild recession in the first half of next year, triggering a rebound in the unemployment rate to almost 5% by end-2023, the resulting slowdown in the growth rates of wages... 30th November 2022 · 16 mins read
US Economics Focus Broad-based decline in core inflation coming soon Despite the unanticipated strength in recent months, there are still good reasons to expect core inflation to fall markedly next year. That moderation will not require a deep recession and/or... 2nd November 2022 · 18 mins read
US Economics Focus Is a recession coming soon? We think that the economy is well-placed to handle higher interest rates and anticipate a period of weak economic growth rather than an outright recession: Rate-sensitive spending is a relatively... 11th July 2022 · 17 mins read
US Economics Focus What to expect from QT We expect the Fed to reduce its asset holdings by more than $3trn over the next couple of years, enough to bring the balance sheet back in line with its pre-pandemic level as a share of GDP. That... 10th May 2022 · 12 mins read
US Economics Will the pandemic boost productivity growth? Productivity growth surged during the pandemic last year, but that was principally due to the disproportionate job losses in low-productivity sectors like leisure & hospitality, which raised the... 27th July 2021 · 19 mins read
US Economics Focus Labour shortages will last well into 2022 The widespread labour shortages evident in the survey data and job opening & quit rates are only partly due to transitory factors, including enhanced unemployment benefits, childcare constraints, and... 29th June 2021 · 17 mins read
US Economics Focus Coming surge in core inflation to be sustained Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolute in his belief that the burst of stronger inflation we are about to see will prove temporary, with underlying inflation dropping back to the 2% target next year. We... 6th May 2021 · 25 mins read
US Economics Focus Introducing our common inflation expectations index In a world where the Phillips curve is flat, inflation expectations become the key driver of actual inflation over the medium term. But getting a true handle on inflation expectations is difficult... 31st March 2021 · 14 mins read
US Economics Focus How much stimulus is too much? Much of the recent discussion on whether the proposed $1.9trn fiscal stimulus, equivalent to nearly 9% of GDP, could be too big when the output gap is closer to 3%, has glossed over the fact that the... 23rd February 2021 · 15 mins read
US Economics Focus $15 minimum wage would add to inflation pressures We suspect that President Joe Biden’s plan to more than double the minimum wage within four years would have only a minimal impact on GDP. While there would almost certainly be some job losses as a... 10th February 2021 · 14 mins read
US Economics Focus What steps will Biden take to tackle climate change? President-elect Joe Biden stood for election on a far-reaching environmental plan which, although it will be harder to implement with the Republicans likely to control the Senate, still represents a... 9th December 2020 · 21 mins read
