UK Economics Weak economy won’t prevent further bond market sell-off The downbeat news on the UK economy this week did not stop the 10-year gilt yield rising further to its highest level since November 2015. And with CPI inflation set to climb further, perhaps to a... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The fall in the composite PMI in April suggests GDP growth has continued to slow as the cost of living crisis has intensified. But economic activity doesn’t appear to be collapsing. And, beneath the... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) The hefty fall in retail sales in March marks the second consecutive month of decline and adds to signs that the real wage squeeze is hitting consumer spending. With CPI inflation already at a 30-year... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The latest batch of data brought some signs of a softening in labour demand, but with the unemployment rate having fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies at a record high and wage growth rising... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all in February suggests the economy had a little less momentum in Q1 than we had previously thought, and increases the risk of a contraction in GDP in... 11th April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Upside risks to inflation continue to build We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q4 Final) The leap in inflation was behind the fall in real household disposable incomes in Q4 of last year. But it is encouraging that households appear willing to reduce their saving rate in order to carry on... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The leap in credit card borrowing in February and smaller increase in household savings could suggest that the cost of living crisis is already starting to bite. But we think it is more likely that... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The small fall in retail sales in February probably had more to do with the shift back towards non-retail spending and the impact of Storm Eunice than it did the cost of living crisis. But, with... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The surprisingly small fall in the composite activity PMI in March suggests that the war in Ukraine didn’t take that much steam out of the economy at the end of the first quarter. That said, the... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 Checklist We are resending this checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Spring Statement. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in CPI inflation from 5.5% in January to a new 30-year high of 6.2% in February adds to the pressure on the Chancellor to offset more of the cost of living crisis in today’s fiscal... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Feb.) Notwithstanding the deterioration in the public finances in February, large revisions to the back data mean that borrowing in 2021/22 is on track to undershoot the OBR’s October 2021 forecast by a... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Should the BoE fear the “stag” more than the “flation”? The Bank of England appears to be putting more weight on the “stag” part of the stagflationary consequences of the war in Ukraine than the “flation” part. But our forecast that the labour market will... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics MPC becomes less hawkish, but rates may still rise to 2.00% Today’s 25bps hike takes interest rates up to the pre-pandemic and post-Global Financial Crisis high of 0.75% and, although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sounded a bit less hawkish than it did... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
