FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England – Another 50bps hike or back to 25bps? 1691071200 Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB.
Event UK Drop In: June CPI - Macro and policy implications 1689753600 The UK CPI report for June will provide fresh evidence of whether the economy has a persistent inflation problem – and whether the Bank of England will need to do more in response.
Event UK Drop-In: The economic and market consequences of the Spring Budget 1678894200 What will UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt deliver in his Spring Budget?
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 1667401200 Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions th
Global Markets Update Will the UK’s new PM still be faced with a risk premium? Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What’s needed to put public debt on a sustainable footing? Long-term fiscal sustainability is governed by what happens to a combination of economic growth, government borrowing costs and the primary budget balance. Since we’re sceptical that the tax cuts... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor set to gamble on growth A key prong to the new PM’s economic policy is to increase the size of the economic pie, rather than redistributing it, seemingly funded by higher public borrowing. If the new government’s gamble on... 21st September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What are UK OIS really telling us about future BoE policy? Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by... 15th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a bigger and longer-lasting squeeze on real incomes The prospect of a bigger rise in utility prices in October and in the first half of 2023 means the risks to our forecast for CPI inflation to rise from June's 40-year high of 9.4% to a peak of 12.5%... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Jun. & Q2) The 0.6% m/m drop in GDP in June was mostly due to the adverse effect of the extra Jubilee bank holiday. Even so, the GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a whole and... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
