UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise, but banks will survive The scale of the increase in mortgage rates means that a large rise in mortgage arrears and repossessions is probably unavoidable. But substantial capital buffers mean lenders will be able to absorb... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Market moves make house price falls inevitable In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Housing Update to clients of our UK Economics service. The rise in market interest rates that has already happened will push up mortgage... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of higher rates for the housing market Investors have revised up how far they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates as they continue to digest the tax cuts announced on Friday. This Update examines what the impact on the... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tax reduction can’t rescue the market from higher rates The Chancellor took a rare, targeted approach to Stamp Duty in today’s vast package of tax cuts. The changes will remove the tax altogether for large numbers of buyers while retaining most of the... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates make price falls even more likely The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast means that mortgage rates will rise further and faster than we previously envisaged, to a peak of 4.7% in March. The resulting higher cost of mortgage... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fiscal package will not prevent house price falls PM Liz Truss’ fiscal package will limit the size of the forthcoming recession, but that may force the Bank of England to raise rates further to get inflation back to target in the medium term. As a... 8th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London outperform? Prime central London (PCL) house prices have underperformed even disappointing wider London trends over recent years. But the latest data have been more encouraging and with prime buyers less exposed... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Build to Rent will continue to thrive The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about refinancing risk? The impact of rising mortgage rates and the hit to real incomes from high inflation have given rise to fears of mortgage repayment difficulties when existing borrowers come to remortgage. But the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Cost inflation to ease alongside new home volumes After reaching a record-high in June, we think that inflation in builders’ costs will soon start to ease. But even as cost pressures subside, construction volumes will slump as the housing market... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The anatomy of a housing market downturn Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the Government’s housing reforms? The Prime Minister last week announced a trio of policies aimed at reversing the decline in home ownership since the financial crisis. We doubt the schemes will make a big difference, although more... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the house price consensus still so bullish? The consensus among professional forecasters is that house price growth will slow but remain positive over the coming years, as a robust jobs market prevents forced sales. But even in the absence of... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental growth approaching a peak Record high rental growth at the start of the year is likely to mark a peak given signs that tenant demand is starting to ease. But strong wage growth and the rising cost of buying as mortgage rates... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
