Global Economics Update Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern? It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the... 28th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can large deposits continue to support house prices? A jump in deposit sizes has been a key driver of the rise in house prices over the past 18 months. While saving is now dropping back, households have built up a large stock of cash assets which will... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House price boom has further to run The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update End of policy support doesn’t pose much risk While the furlough scheme was critical in preventing the COVID-19 recession from dragging down house prices, we don’t think that the withdrawal of the scheme poses much of a risk. Meanwhile, the... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are PDRs the answer to mis-matches in supply? New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What if we are wrong about interest rates? While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) became more hawkish at its August meeting, an increase in interest rates on the scale it expects would not undermine house prices. But more stubborn inflation... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Post-holiday slump in transactions won’t hit prices It is inevitable that transactions will drop sharply after setting a record high in June. But the stamp duty holiday is just one of several factors behind the housing market boom, so house prices... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing A tale of two rental markets While London rents are set to reverse some of the fall of the past year, we doubt the premium of rents in the capital over the national average will return to its pre-virus level. But outside London... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will soaring materials costs slow housebuilding? Inflation in the cost of construction materials has soared as resurgent new home development led to strong demand at the same time as supply was still recovering from disruption due to the pandemic... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about rental arrears? The early evidence suggests that the end of the evictions moratorium will not result in a huge wave of evictions. And while the end of the furlough scheme presents a risk, we suspect that the easing... 11th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rents show supply deficiency in London & the South House-price-to-earnings ratios are close to record highs even in regions where there isn’t a shortage of supply. But the varying cost of rent across the country suggests that limited supply is an... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How the housing market survived COVID-19 All four previous recessions in the UK led to a sharp slowdown or an outright fall in house prices. But 2020 was very different, with house price growth accelerating to a six-year high despite the... 28th April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in long-term interest rates won’t crash house prices Long-term interest rates have risen sharply since the end of 2020 and may rise further, but that shouldn’t be a drag on the housing market. In fact, we think that mortgage rates will fall a little... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Is build-to-rent investment about to take off? While investment in build-to-rent developments has been notably resilient over the past year, we continue to think that the growth of the sector will be slow for two reasons. First, high house prices... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Has the pandemic changed housing demand? Recent movements on house prices show only limited evidence that COVID-19 has substantially changed where people want to live. While central London has underperformed, central Manchester and... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read