UK Housing Market Update Where is all the stock? Estate agents undoubtedly have a very limited number of homes on the books. But the idea that the lack of supply is due to few homes being put up for sale is a misconception. High numbers of... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Increase in mortgage rates to be limited Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Dovish surprise reduces housing market risks The indication from the Bank of England that Bank Rate of 1.25% would be too high for the economy suggests that the forthcoming rise in interest rates won’t be anywhere near large enough to topple the... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Materials shortages restrain construction Shortages of construction materials are unlikely to ease for at least another 6-12 months, restraining activity in the renovation sector and among smaller housebuilders That is likely to cap housing... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Modest rate hikes won’t prevent house price gains We doubt that a larger rise in Bank Rate over the next two years than we previously expected will put much upward pressure on mortgage rates. Low interest rates and increased spending on housing costs... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern? It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the... 28th September 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can large deposits continue to support house prices? A jump in deposit sizes has been a key driver of the rise in house prices over the past 18 months. While saving is now dropping back, households have built up a large stock of cash assets which will... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House price boom has further to run The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update End of policy support doesn’t pose much risk While the furlough scheme was critical in preventing the COVID-19 recession from dragging down house prices, we don’t think that the withdrawal of the scheme poses much of a risk. Meanwhile, the... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are PDRs the answer to mis-matches in supply? New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What if we are wrong about interest rates? While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) became more hawkish at its August meeting, an increase in interest rates on the scale it expects would not undermine house prices. But more stubborn inflation... 16th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Post-holiday slump in transactions won’t hit prices It is inevitable that transactions will drop sharply after setting a record high in June. But the stamp duty holiday is just one of several factors behind the housing market boom, so house prices... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing A tale of two rental markets While London rents are set to reverse some of the fall of the past year, we doubt the premium of rents in the capital over the national average will return to its pre-virus level. But outside London... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will soaring materials costs slow housebuilding? Inflation in the cost of construction materials has soared as resurgent new home development led to strong demand at the same time as supply was still recovering from disruption due to the pandemic... 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about rental arrears? The early evidence suggests that the end of the evictions moratorium will not result in a huge wave of evictions. And while the end of the furlough scheme presents a risk, we suspect that the easing... 11th June 2021 · 3 mins read
