UK Housing Market Update Can the housing market continue to shrug off job losses? History suggests that large falls in employment can lead to big falls in house prices. The furlough scheme, mortgage holidays, and a moratorium on possessions have insulated the housing market from... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could cladding issues weigh on the housing market? Cladding issues are a downside risk to our already weak housing transactions forecasts for next year. If there continues to be severe testing delays and no change in policy, transactions could end up... 9th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Second wave may pull house prices back down The second lockdown will have a smaller immediate impact than the first as the housing market is allowed to remain open this time. But it will also put the economic recovery into reverse and push the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Employment revisions highlight rental market risks The big downward revision to employment in the labour market statistics reveals that renters have seen a larger hit to employment than homeowners. This supports our view that house prices will be... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is pent-up housing demand running out? There are tentative signs that the housing market mini-boom is running out of steam. We think house price growth and transactions are probably close to their peak. As pent-up demand from lockdown is... 2nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising interest rates don’t signal a credit crunch We don’t think the surge in high-LTV interest rates signals an incoming credit crunch. Rather, it probably reflects lenders prioritising demand from less risky borrowers. As the surge from pent-up... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the V shaped recovery last? The housing market recovery has exceeded all expectations and we have substantially upgraded our 2020 house price forecast. But as pent up demand runs out, a weak economy, tight credit conditions and... 4th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will pent-up evictions weaken rents? Part of the eviction ban is due to end in September, and court ordered evictions are likely to surge as the backlog works through the system. Even so, evictions will remain small compared to the... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can planning changes boost housebuilding? Private housebuilding is constrained by the speed at which builders can sell homes at prevailing market prices, which planning changes will do little to change. As a result, the government’s proposed... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty cut brightens the outlook for house prices The latest stamp duty cut will bring forward some housing demand and, by increasing perceptions that the government is standing behind the market, the cut reduces the chance of a house price crash... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How will the high LTV withdrawal hit lending? The recent withdrawal of high LTV products could impede as many as one in four prospective first-time buyers. More broadly, tighter credit conditions reinforce our view that, despite signs of a surge... 26th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Transactions recovery to beat expectations Transactions in April and May have surprised on the upside. What’s more, there are signs that new demand in June has been stronger than expected. Of course, the economic damage from lockdown suggests... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental market isn’t out of the woods The rental market data have been surprisingly resilient. But informal rent cuts may be happening under the radar, while government support has delayed the crunch point for households. As a result, we... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage holiday extension cuts chance of crash The extended mortgage holiday scheme will cushion the blow for financially distressed households. Alongside the other financial support already available, it further reduces the chance of an immediate... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will eased lockdown affect property development? Easing movement restrictions, combined with government support and strong underlying demand will allow housebuilding to bounce back fairly quickly. But weak occupier demand and falling capital values... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read