UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The good news is that the 2.9% m/m fall in GDP during January’s COVID-19 lockdown will probably be the low point for the year. The bad news is that while the plunges in exports and imports weren’t... 12th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Which measure of government net debt is most useful? In last week’s Budget speech, the Chancellor referred to the lower “underlying” measure of government net debt rather than the higher “headline” measure. You’d be forgiven for thinking he did that... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Unemployment rate may peak at only 6.0% The rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, the reopening of schools and the staggered reopening of other sectors from mid-April should mean that the probable fall in GDP in January proves to be the low... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Budget 2021 – Filling the fiscal hole While most governments are focussed squarely on maintaining or increasing fiscal support for their economies, in today’s Budget the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, adopted a different two-staged plan for the... 3rd March 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Spring Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Spring Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 3rd March and to provide some instant... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt was repeated in January. And we expect a continuation of these trends... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Lockdown exit plan to shed light on speed of the recovery The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggested that January’s lockdown hit the economy harder than November’s lockdown. But at least it doesn’t look like things deteriorated further in February... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics MPC not ready to use negative rates…and may not need to Our forecasts that the Bank of England would not be able to use negative interest until the middle of the year and wouldn’t be willing to speed up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) proved to be... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Plunging population would threaten extent of GDP recovery The possible sharp fall in the population since the start of the pandemic may explain up to 1.8 percentage points of the underperformance of the UK economy last year relative to its peers and, more... 21st January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Risk of double-dip rising, Bank of England to do more It may only be a matter of time before the UK follows its European neighbours into a de facto national lockdown. As a result, there are big downside risks to our already downbeat forecast that GDP won... 30th October 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) While the resurgence in the housing market continued in August, consumer credit barely rose. And the darkening clouds on the economic horizon may tempt some households to start to rein in spending in... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Investment still in lockdown, negative rates back in vogue UK consumers have embraced their renewed ability to spend over the last few months but business investment is still on lockdown as uncertainty about the economic recovery, Brexit and future lockdowns... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Aug.) The further rise in retail sales in August was particularly encouraging as we know non-retail spending picked up at the same time, suggesting that consumer spending has rebounded strongly. 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Strength of initial rebound won’t prevent more QE As the Bank of England already has a QE programme in place and financial markets have remained calm, it was no surprise that the MPC voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged in September. But we... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in CPI inflation in August probably represents the low point for inflation. But a sustained rise to 2.0% seems unlikely within the next few years. 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
