UK Economics Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) Today’s data release suggests that the labour market is now on the front foot. Admittedly, the unemployment rate may still rise over the rest of this year. But this will probably be due to people re... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid recovery and rising inflation risks The 2.1% m/m gain in GDP in March added to other evidence that the economy is recovering more rapidly from the COVID-19 crisis than even our above consensus view had suggested. As a result, we have... 14th May 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Mar. & Q1) The burst of growth in March shows that the recovery has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had thought and suggests that the risks to our forecast for the economy to return to its February... 12th May 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Burst of reopening inflation will probably be temporary We suspect that a bout of inflation triggered by the economy reopening will be brief and that a more widespread and sustained rise in inflation that would concern the Monetary Policy Committee won’t... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Surge in pipeline price pressures an upside risk to inflation Supply issues have raised price pressures for producers, which they have begun to pass on. But with doubts around the reliability of survey evidence and the limited pass-through to consumer prices... 10th May 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics MPC more positive, but tighter policy still some way off While voting today to leave interest rates at +0.10% and the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) at £895bn, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) suggested conditions for tighter policy may be in place in... 6th May 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics A wave of insolvencies is coming, but not a tsunami There will be a surge in business insolvencies once the government’s moratoriums expire at the end of June and September. But a strong economic recovery should ensure that fewer businesses go bust... 5th May 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data provides some signs that a consumer revival was underway even before the COVID-19 restrictions were eased in mid-April. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rate hikes still a long way off, despite stronger economy Given the better starting point and improving economic outlook, it would be a surprise if the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t come out with a stronger set of economic forecasts than it had in... 29th April 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics What is the MPC’s forward guidance telling us? When taken together, the Bank of England’s forward guidance and its economic forecasts imply that the Bank may not raise interest rates until late in 2023 at the earliest. That would be later than the... 27th April 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Does it matter if the BoE ends QE before the Fed and ECB? Our expectation that the Bank of England will end quantitative easing (QE) sooner than the US Fed and the ECB is unlikely to mean that UK government bond yields rise much further than elsewhere or... 26th April 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics UK would win the European GDP Super League If there were an economics version of the European football league, which started up and collapsed this week, where success depended on where GDP is at the end of 2022, then the UK may win with... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The surge in April’s flash composite PMI suggests that the economy has begun to gather momentum. And this is probably a taste of things to come over the next few months as the shackles from the COVID... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong rise in retail sales showed that the economy made a fair bit of progress even before non-essential retailers reopened in April. And sales will probably leap further in April. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Mar.) The further rise in public borrowing in March rounded out the worst year for the public finances since 1947. But borrowing was £24.3bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rebound in CPI inflation from 0.4% in February to 0.7% in March is the start of a rise to about 1.5% in the next few months and to above 2.0% by December. But as we doubt inflation will stick... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
