UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The slight fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests that the government’s job furlough scheme is still insulating the labour market from the worst effects of the pandemic. We still expect... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Bounce back in activity begins The early evidence supports our view that the reopening of non-essential retailers and outdoor drinking/dining venues last Monday marked the start of a rapid rebound in economic activity. 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Haldane’s MPC departure not as dovish as it first appears Amid the reopening of shops and pubs this week, it was the subtler news that the MPC’s arch-optimist Andy Haldane is leaving the MPC at the end of June that caused a reaction in the markets. At the... 16th April 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Rapid recovery to limit scarring While we think the reopening of the economy and the vaccine rollout will allow GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level a bit earlier than most forecasters, the big difference between us and the... 15th April 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) Given there was no change in the lockdown restrictions in February, GDP was never going to shoot back up. But the small rise does suggest that January was probably the low point of the year. We think... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Economy has a spring in its step It remains to be seen if this week’s news on the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine further slows the UK’s vaccination rollout. But as the government says it is still on track to vaccinate all adults by the... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Quarterly National Accounts (Q4) The upward revision to GDP in the second half of 2020 means the economy does not have quite as far to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. And Q4’s high saving rate leaves plenty of scope for a rapid... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt continued in February. We doubt much changed in March, but this pattern... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Things are looking up, but few signs inflation will roar into life soon While the risk of an interruption to the UK’s COVID-19 vaccine supplies rose this week, the latest news on economic activity has been positive. We suspect the pandemic will lead to more inflation... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The fairly modest rise in retail sales volumes in February affirmed that the third COVID-19 lockdown has been tough for retailers, keeping sales suppressed following the plunge in January. But that... 26th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS composite activity PMI in March suggests that the economy has started to pick up. And once the COVID-19 shackles start to be released next month, activity will probably... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Feb.) The drag on CPI inflation in February from the COVID-19 lockdown will delay the rebound in inflation to 2.0% and perhaps prompt the markets to reconsider their view that interest rates will rise next... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The drop in the unemployment rate from 5.1% in December to 5.0% in January highlights once again the extent to which the government’s job furlough scheme has protected jobs during the pandemic. We... 23rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Gilt market ponders consequences of MPC inaction The continued low level of 2-year gilt yields suggests that the gilt market believes the Bank of England will keep interest rates at +0.10% for a long time yet. But the increase in gilt yields of... 19th March 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Expiry of policy support won’t knock the recovery off course Extensions to many emergency support measures in the Budget, combined with the lockdown easing roadmap, leaves us with a clearer steer on the impact of the eventual withdrawal of government support... 16th March 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Trade trauma is not all due to Brexit and will be temporary Brexit was not the only reason why exports and imports in January were so weak. COVID-19 and statistical breaks are also to blame. And it appears that a good chunk of these effects faded in February. 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
