UK Economics Update Fears of a ‘Spring of Discontent’ overplayed The recent surge in industrial action in the UK has lead to concerns that a ‘Spring of Discontent’ – echoing the highly-disruptive period of strikes in 1978/9 known as the ‘Winter of Discontent’ – is... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New lending targets will make little difference The Chancellor appears set to announce new lending targets for the partly-nationalised banks RBS and Lloyds Group in his Budget tomorrow. However, the chances of the new targets significantly... 23rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Just what is a “credible plan” for the public finances? It has become almost a cliché to talk of the need for a “credible” medium-term plan for the public finances. But what should such a plan look like, when might it appear and what impact might it have? 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market data point to sluggish recovery It has been suggested that the recent falls in unemployment provide further evidence that the economy is recovering more strongly than the official data show. However, the broader news on the labour... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market data point to sluggish recovery It has been suggested that the recent falls in unemployment provide further evidence that the economy is recovering more strongly than the official data show. However, the broader news on the labour... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC shouldn’t fret about inflation expectations The Monetary Policy Committee seems increasingly concerned about the risk of a rise in inflation expectations. But we think that those concerns are misguided and could lead to a policy error. 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there a limit to how much QE the MPC can do? Concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is nearing the limit of how much quantitative easing (QE) it can undertake are probably overdone. Nonetheless, the potential for QE to spark an asset... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are zero interest rates possible in the UK? We think that cutting Bank Rate all the way to zero remains a potential tool in the Monetary Policy Committee’s arsenal. None of the obstacles to lower rates put forward by the MPC seem insurmountable... 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire again but further action still likely The MPC remains in wait and see mode while it assesses the economic outlook and the impact of its previous policy measures. But with the recovery sluggish, inflation worries set to ease and a major... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze should eventually support the pound Fears that the general election will result in a hung parliament may continue to weigh on the pound in the coming weeks. But the prospect of a major fiscal squeeze under any form of government should... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) This week marks the one year anniversary of the launch of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) programme of asset purchases. As Mervyn King has pointed out, without QE, the UK would probably... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Overseas inflation more reassuring for the UK than it looks The UK has not been alone in seeing inflation rise recently, prompting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to suggest that common factors may therefore be keeping inflation high globally. However, a... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wage costs pose no lasting inflation threat While the recent rise in consumer price inflation has been driven by temporary factors such as the VAT hike and higher energy prices, one potentially more persistent influence is the rapid growth of... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not tightening policy yet It has been suggested that central banks are already effectively tightening policy by withdrawing the emergency liquidity provided to the financial system during the depths of the crisis. But in the... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
