UK Economics Update Which sectors will falling household income hit hardest? The consumer downturn has so far been driven primarily by tighter credit conditions, falling house prices and low consumer confidence. But weak household income growth will play an increasing role, as... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC not done with QE yet The MPC’s failure today to announce an extension of its quantitative easing (QE) programme was a little disappointing in light of the continued weakness of the economic outlook. But further policy... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Financial Stability Report highlights constraints on bank lending The Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) supports our view that bank lending growth will remain sluggish for a prolonged period, thus constraining the likely recovery in the... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment unlikely to peak until 2011 The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.). The latest monetary indicators confirm that the Bank of England’s asset purchases under its quantitative easing (QE) programme are providing some boost to the money holdings of the non-bank sector... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Revised economic growth outlook will not underpin house prices Yesterday, we revised up our forecasts for economic growth in the UK. Our new forecasts still leave the economy on a very weak path, which will not prevent further falls in employment and household... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappoints Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth revised higher, but outlook still very weak Upward revisions to our global economic forecasts and an improvement in the economic data at home have led us to revise our forecasts for UK GDP growth higher. But the outlook remains weak and... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth revised higher, but outlook still very weak Upward revisions to our global economic forecasts and an improvement in the economic data at home have led us to revise our forecasts for UK GDP growth higher. But the outlook remains weak and... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire for now, but more QE probably ahead The MPC’s decision to pause today was no surprise in the light of the announcement only last month to extend quantitative easing and recent signs of improvement in the economic data. But we still... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC holds fire for now, but more QE probably ahead The MPC’s decision to pause today was no surprise in the light of the announcement only last month to extend quantitative easing and recent signs of improvement in the economic data. But we still... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lenders fail to pass on fall in funding costs The falling level of interbank lending rates has been an encouraging aspect of the recent improvement in conditions in both financial markets and the wider economy. Unfortunately, there is limited... 26th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How serious is the threat to AAA sovereign ratings? The chances that a country like the UK or even the US might lose its AAA rating in the coming years are rather greater than generally assumed. However, the consequences for the financial markets may... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that the boost to the monetary base from the Bank of England’s asset purchases is not yet feeding through into a ignificant pick-up in lending to the wider economy. 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporate bond issuance won't plug the lending gap The recent pick-up in corporate bond issuance suggests that, even though banks remain reluctant to lend, companies are managing to access funds from elsewhere. However, it looks unlikely that higher... 19th May 2009 · 1 min read
