Japan Economics Weekly Surge in labour force soon to run out of steam Japan’s effective labour force has continued to grow despite a continued fall in the working-age population as more women have entered the workforce and baby-boomers have continued to work into older... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is services inflation slowing? While the collapse in energy prices over the past two years explains some of the recent decline in services inflation, we suspect that it mostly reflects the sluggish state of consumer spending... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is rising real estate debt a cause for concern? Data from the Bank of Japan show that bank lending to real estate companies reached a record high last quarter and, on some measures, property prices have been rising rapidly too. However, broader... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly End of tourism boom no disaster The stronger yen has brought Japan’s tourism boom to a halt. However, the importance ofoverseas visitors for economic activity remains small. The bigger risks from the appreciation ofthe exchange rate... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal targets moving out of reach Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed in recent years, mostly because of 2014’s sales tax hike. However, tax revenues have started to fall relative to output as corporate profits are weakening and... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the stronger yen speed up offshoring? While the recent strengthening of the yen has rendered outward investment cheaper for Japanese firms, we doubt that it will lift investment outflows much as the growth outlook elsewhere remains rather... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still haunted by the undead? Japan’s economy remains dominated by old, unproductive firms, while those hoping to create new firms face a range of hurdles. Meanwhile, the country remains relatively isolated from the rest of the... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will underlying inflation turn negative? Our base case is that the recent strengthening of the yen will result in a further moderation in inflation excluding fresh food and energy towards zero. However, the magnitude of recent exchange rate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen to drag on exports The sharp weakening of the yen in the early stages of Abenomics helped to shield Japanese exporters from the slowdown in global demand. However, the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate since... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Assessing Japan's fiscal stance Only a fraction of the ¥28 trillion fiscal stimulus passed by the Cabinet on Tuesday constitutes fresh public spending. What’s more, budgeted spending has been a poor guide to actual changes in public... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is municipal debt the next frontier for QQE One widely-held view is that the Bank of Japan has refrained from stepping up its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds in recent months because the pool of available securities is drying up quickly... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan, Baron Munchausen and the debt swamp Baron Munchausen managed to escape a swamp by pulling on his own hair. In a similar vein, some commentators have recently argued that Japan could pull itself out of its debt morass by using carefully... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is “Helicopter Ben” heralding more easing? Following a landslide victory in the Upper House elections, Prime Minister Abe has confirmed that the government will prepare a large supplementary budget later this year. All else equal, this should... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen? While the yen has weakened slightly over the past week as concerns about the impact of Brexit have faded, it is still around 20% stronger than it was at the start of the year. A stronger currency... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
