Japan Economics Weekly Exporters to benefit from renewed yen-weakness We expect GDP growth among Japan’s major trading partners to remain weak this year by past standards, so Japan’s export volumes will remain under pressure. However, if our currency forecasts prove... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will weak productivity help to reach 2% inflation? Weak productivity developments pose some upside risks to inflation, particularly in services. However, this will be more than offset by the impact of lower consumer import prices on goods inflation... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the sales tax hike be postponed yet again? Following the renewed contraction in output last quarter, we are lowering our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1.0%. If domestic demand doesn’t pick up soon, the government may decide to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will the Bank of Japan do next? The Bank of Japan unveiled a negative interest rate policy two weeks ago because it concluded that more forceful action was needed to lift inflation. Now, with equities slumping and the yen soaring to... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will negative rates lower bank lending rates? The introduction of a negative interest rate on a small portion of excess reserves has already reduced corporate bond yields, and we think that banks may also lower lending rates somewhat. However... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are Japanese firms struggling in China? The fact that Japanese firms have fared much worse in China than their competitors since the yen started weakening in 2012 suggests that their competitiveness has waned. However, firms have at least... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited boost to corporate profits from cheaper oil Corporate profits have not risen much in response to lower prices of energy and other raw materials, as the gains have been highly concentrated in a few sectors. Looking ahead, the recent appreciation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are Japan’s GDP data getting worse? Japan’s GDP figures are subject to larger revisions over time than those of any other G7 economy. The pronounced swings in Japan’s economy in recent years provide a partial explanation. But continued... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 Economic activity is set to strengthen next year as consumers bring forward spending ahead of the sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017. However, demand will surely slump once the tax has been... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government eyes nursing to revive growth One of the government’s latest measures to promote growth is a proposal to increase the number of nursing home beds so that fewer workers quit their jobs to take care of family members. The plan could... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts unlikely to revive capital spending Firms have responded to the sharp fall in corporate tax rates since Mr Abe returned to power by stepping up investment abroad rather than at home. With bleak demand prospects as a result of poor... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will minimum wage hikes boost consumption? Prime Minister Abe has expressed his desire to lift the minimum wage by 3% per year to boost earnings and consumer spending. However, we estimate that aggregate labour income would rise by less than 0... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abenomics has not altered Japan’s long-term outlook Output may have contracted again last quarter, but Japan’s growth has actually been fairly healthy by past standards since Mr Abe returned to power, despite stronger demographic headwinds. But the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown bolsters case for delay in sales tax hike The government has set itself a stringent target for eliminating the budget deficit and currently intends to raise the sales tax again in 2017 to help it achieve that end. The economic weakness that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of the privatisation of the Post Bank? The government took the first step towards the privatisation of the Post Bank by selling a 11% stake on Wednesday. Private ownership will force the Bank to shift its investment portfolio from low... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
