Japan Economics Weekly When will R&D spending start to recover? Spending on research and development has been sluggish recently, but the recent rebound in corporate profits suggests it will start to recover before long. This would provide a boost to domestic... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen caught between Kim Jong-un and US Fed With long-term interest rates at home anchored by the Bank of Japan, the key determinants of the value of the yen are both outside Japanese policymakers’ control: geopolitics and the actions of the US... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Full-time staff shortages point to faster wage growth Part-time wages have been rising at a reasonable rate for a while but, with evidence now building the firms are finding it harder to hire sufficient full-time workers, a pick-up in broader wage growth... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger growth, but inflation to rise only slowly We are lifting our GDP forecasts for both this year and next to reflect the strength of recent data. We are not making any changes to our inflation forecasts though, as price pressures still appear... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Efforts to reform labour market fall short Japan’s government is worried that a sharp increase in the number of part-time workers will feed into weaker growth in productivity in future and it has proposed a package of labour reforms in... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still building bridges to nowhere? Japan’s government has scaled back its public investment spending dramatically since the 1990s but it remains high by international standards. The quality of the country’s infrastructure is therefore... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Outlook for consumer spending remains good A slowdown in labour income forced households to reduce their savings in recent months. However, households have also become more upbeat about their personal finances. And with income growth likely to... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy on track for prolonged expansion Japan’s economy probably achieved a sixth consecutive quarter of growth in Q2 and early signs are that the run has continued into Q3. If so this would be the longest expansion since the turn of the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Could Abenomics survive the departure of PM Abe? Abenomics appeared to run out of momentum well before a recent slump in Prime Minister Abe’s popularity put his political future in doubt. In particular, his departure would matter little for... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The fiscal stimulus that wasn’t A year has passed since Japan’s government announced a huge fiscal stimulus. We argued at the time that the announcement would be followed by only a negligible increase in public spending. In fact... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in inward FDI has further to run Japan is less welcoming to foreign direct investment than many other rich economies. But cuts to corporate tax rates, the prospect of additional free trade agreements and high profitability are making... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unlikely to tighten even if sales tax hike is delayed We now expect the government to delay the sales tax hike currently scheduled for October 2019 beyond 2020. While this would remove one obstacle to policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, the bigger... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is public sector debt sustainable? The ratio of public debt to GDP in Japan is more likely to rise than fall over the coming decade. But the situation is not as precarious as it may seem, given the government’s large holdings of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the structural unemployment rate fallen? Better education, an ageing workforce and easier job searching via the internet have reduced Japan’s structural jobless rate and kept a lid on wage growth in recent years. Even so, employers report... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Part-time earnings point to mounting wage pressure Recent gains in the hourly wages of part-time workers are an early indication that the tight labour market is finally creating some upward pressure on wages. That would be a welcome development for... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the BoJ continue to scale back its JGB purchases? The Bank of Japan’s JGB purchases of ¥4.3 trillion in May were the lowest since it stepped up purchases in October 2014. If overseas yields rebound in coming months as we expect, we will probably see... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
