Japan Economics Weekly Growth probably slowed in Q3 This week’s activity data for July were rather weak. The 0.1% m/m rise in retail sales values wasn’t too bad given that sales had jumped by 1.4% m/m in June. But consumer goods prices rose by 0.7% m/m... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to pick up Inflation has been held back by plunging mobile phone costs and competition from online retailers. The main factor, however, are deeply engrained deflationary expectations among households and firms... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Turkish contagion, BoJ’s helping hand A former BoJ executive suggested that the Bank of Japan may tolerate 10-year yields rising to 0.4% even while keeping its official target at zero. This would lift trading income, increase returns on... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ's cold feet, consumer spending boycott Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan was close to hiking rates twice this year. But the decision to allow ten-year yields to rise a bit further above the 0% target placated the hawks on the... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ tested, GDP rebounding The outlines of the Bank of Japan’s new policy framework have become clearer during the week: a more flexible approach to intervention, a focus on preventing sharp moves, but also a tolerance of... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly High expectations for BoJ, doors open for immigration Bond market participants appear convinced that something substantive will come from next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. But if the Bank did anything that was perceived as backing away from the... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade war & peace The trade war between China and the US will cause some collateral damage but the biggest potential threat to Japan’s economy is a US tariff on Japanese cars. For now though, our base case is that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Harada’s battlefields, firms optimistic on investment BoJ Board member Harada this week refuted criticism that the Bank’s prolonged monetary easing poses a major threat to financial stability. We share his view that those concerns are overdone, which is... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Teflon Abe is back, labour market tightening rapidly Japan has looked to be at full employment for some time but the latest releases have called that assumption into question and raised the possibility that wage growth – and the Bank of Japan’s hopes of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why have corporate profits soared? Corporate profits have more than doubled since Prime Minister Abe returned to power. We think that this reflects a reduction in cross-shareholdings since the late 1990s and improvements in corporate... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in fertility too little, too late The slump in the share of young women that are married combined with the delay when women have their first child suggest that the fertility rate may at best rise from the current 1.4 to around 1.5... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ getting more concerned about financial stability The Bank of Japan seems to be getting more concerned about the impact of low policy rates on financial stability. However, the financial system is neither unwilling to provide credit nor is credit... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will ageing result in a surge in the budget deficit? New projections suggest that social security spending could rise by 8% of GDP by 2040. The government has already increased social security contributions in recent years and there is some scope to... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker Q1 sets the tone for 2018 The fall in GDP last quarter should be followed by a rebound in activity in the current quarter. But with the economy running into capacity constraints, our view remains that growth will slow this... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
