Japan Economics Weekly High expectations for BoJ, doors open for immigration Bond market participants appear convinced that something substantive will come from next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. But if the Bank did anything that was perceived as backing away from the... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade war & peace The trade war between China and the US will cause some collateral damage but the biggest potential threat to Japan’s economy is a US tariff on Japanese cars. For now though, our base case is that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Harada’s battlefields, firms optimistic on investment BoJ Board member Harada this week refuted criticism that the Bank’s prolonged monetary easing poses a major threat to financial stability. We share his view that those concerns are overdone, which is... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Teflon Abe is back, labour market tightening rapidly Japan has looked to be at full employment for some time but the latest releases have called that assumption into question and raised the possibility that wage growth – and the Bank of Japan’s hopes of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why have corporate profits soared? Corporate profits have more than doubled since Prime Minister Abe returned to power. We think that this reflects a reduction in cross-shareholdings since the late 1990s and improvements in corporate... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in fertility too little, too late The slump in the share of young women that are married combined with the delay when women have their first child suggest that the fertility rate may at best rise from the current 1.4 to around 1.5... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ getting more concerned about financial stability The Bank of Japan seems to be getting more concerned about the impact of low policy rates on financial stability. However, the financial system is neither unwilling to provide credit nor is credit... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will ageing result in a surge in the budget deficit? New projections suggest that social security spending could rise by 8% of GDP by 2040. The government has already increased social security contributions in recent years and there is some scope to... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker Q1 sets the tone for 2018 The fall in GDP last quarter should be followed by a rebound in activity in the current quarter. But with the economy running into capacity constraints, our view remains that growth will slow this... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How well is Japan prepared for the digital revolution? Investment in IT equipment and infrastructure has fallen in recent years and there has been no push to raise the low level of university enrolment in related subjects. Still, the country’s ICT... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown in bank lending no cause for concern The continued slowdown in bank lending seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that low policy rates are undermining financial intermediation. But broader measures of credit availability... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How big a threat are rising hedging costs for banks? An increase in hedging costs has undermined the appeal of investing in US$ bonds for Japanese investors. This won’t affect the profitability of banks much as their holdings of foreign bonds are small... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Policy tightening still a distant prospect The tight labour market is now boosting wage growth but not by enough to generate significant inflation. With the economy likely to slow this year, the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten policy... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the US bully Japan into a free trade agreement? US President Trump has once again sown confusion by indicating that the US may still join the Trans Pacific Partnership. However, he indicated that this would require a renegotiation of the agreement... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
