Global Markets Update Why the 10-year Treasury yield could yet fall back significantly Although the 10-year Treasury yield rose further to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~4.5% in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we continue to forecast that it will drop back to 3.75% by the... 22nd September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds might fare as easing cycles gather pace We expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed market economies to fall over the remainder of this year and next, as central banks shift focus to monetary easing. But, in some cases, we... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to rally Given our dovish view of monetary policy in Emerging Markets (EMs) – and our increasingly less bearish view of the US economy – we think that EM local-currency government bond yields will fall across... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect a rally in government bonds in the US and Europe Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Is there much scope for the S&P 500 to build on its gains? We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect Treasury yields to fall We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt upward pressures on the JGB yield will last The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds may come closer to the new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0% in the coming months, but we doubt it will settle that high further ahead. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Three thoughts on the US credit rating downgrade The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision this week is more symbol than substance. But three key related points are worth highlighting. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the early EM interest rate cutters The key points that stand out from the recent moves by central banks in Brazil, Chile and Hungary to cut interest rates are, first, how quickly policymakers have shifted from hawkish to dovish and... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Effective end of YCC adds to the case for a stronger yen The BoJ’s decision earlier today to, in effect, end its long-standing Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy means that long-term government bond yields in Japan will become more responsive to economic... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
