Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields could fall We think Emerging Market (EM) dollar bond yields will fall in general by the end of this year, thanks both to lower US Treasury yields and, in some cases, narrower spreads. But the sovereign dollar... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Springtime across markets; too good to be true? The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s unusual about this bubble and whether it matters Unlike most bubbles, this one hasn’t been accompanied, at least so far, by obvious signs of high and rising leverage. On the other hand, the share of funds invested in ‘passive’ products is now much... 20th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update US credit spreads could fall further despite high bankruptcies US corporate credit spreads have continued to shrink even as bankruptcies have soared but, while they are now fairly narrow, we think there is still some scope for them to tighten further over the... 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s tech sector could continue to do well We think the “tech” sectors of China’s stock market are the best prospects to lead a continued rebound in it, even if we doubt they’ll fare as well as their global tech peers over the next couple of... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 7th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update The Treasury yield curve could “disinvert” next year We expect the Treasury yield curve to “disinvert” in 2024, as we think the Fed will cut rates by more than investors expect and term premia will remain at least as high as they are now. 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
