Global Markets Focus What does history tell us about the outlook for US equities? The prospect of a protracted economic downturn until 2010 at the earliest implies that the upside for US equities is likely to be limited, despite bank recapitalisation. 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Commodity prices have much further to fall We think that oil prices will decline to $80 per barrel in the coming weeks and perhaps as low as $50 in the coming year. Agricultural commodity prices could still drop by as much as a third from... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The market implications of the US bank bailout The US bank bailout is a necessary but far from sufficient condition for a decent economic recovery. We expect further falls in equity markets and government bond yields. But provided the dollar holds... 29th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How commodity index funds affect the price of commodities Commodity index funds differ from traditional speculation in commodities in significant ways. These underpin the possibility that such funds are having a material impact on prices. 26th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Can speculation drive up oil prices without a rise in inventories? Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the absence of a build-up of crude oil inventories does not rule out the possibility that speculation has been helping to drive up oil prices. 23rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Oil fundamentals will bring prices back down to earth Speculative pressure can only push oil prices so far before fundamental demand and supply conditions reassert themselves, leading to a potentially sharp correction. We expect (Brent) crude oil prices... 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus US corporate profits to fall sharply in 2008 We expect US corporate profits to fall by around 7.5% this year as the impact of the wider economic slowdown more than offsets any boost to earnings from the weaker dollar. This is not yet fully... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
