Global Markets Focus EZ equities likely to hold up better than US equities We forecast that the MSCI EMU Index will fall by another 13% this year as the US joins China and the euro-zone in an economic slowdown. Nonetheless, a resolution to the trade war could see equities in... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The implications of slower global growth for EM assets In this Focus, we argue that the bright start to 2019 for most EM assets will not last, as growth in both emerging and advanced economies slows markedly in the next couple of years. Within the EM... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why earnings are likely to weigh on EM equities Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will the IT sector fare worst when the S&P 500 slumps? Although we are not forecasting a recession in the US, we expect the economy there to slow significantly next year and think that this will contribute to a further downturn in the stock market. As a... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Are the best days over for EM financial markets? After a very strong run, EM bonds, equities and currencies have all faltered recently. Although they have since bounced back a bit, we think that their best days are now over. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will Corporate America shore up the Treasury market? Corporate America has been masquerading as a major “foreign” investor in US government bonds in recent years. This Focus considers whether its healthy appetite will continue and anchor Treasury yields... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary policy? In our view, EM assets are likely to weather the gradual tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies this year and next. But the effects of this tightening may start to bite further ahead. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Does low volatility really spell trouble for the US stock market? There is a view that a big correction in the US stock market lies around the corner, because volatility is very low. This view has been influenced by the fact that volatility was very low before the... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What do lower equilibrium interest rates mean for asset prices? It is often argued that asset prices have been driven up by exceptionally loose monetary policy and that they are bound to come crashing down once central banks start to raise real interest rates back... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus A new equilibrium in the US stock market In our view, the equilibrium price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now much higher than its long run average. Indeed, we think it is close to its current cyclically-adjusted level. If we are... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Which EM equity markets are set to shine? Time will tell if the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities was a turning point, but we remain cautiously optimistic that they will outperform those in the developed world in 2016/17. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Shifts in global savings and their implications for US Treasuries The unusual stability of long-term US Treasury yields during the last Fed tightening cycle between 2004 and 2006 has been attributed to a glut of global savings. We are not convinced by this... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
