Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Focus Soft landings, immaculate disinflation, and US equities A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes to get an idea of what might be ahead for equities there. 7th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Focus Just how big a problem are bonds for banks and the economy? US banks’ problems may have only just begun, but we doubt a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 is on the cards. 17th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Global Markets Focus The implications of waning appetite for US Treasuries We forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to decline between now and the end of the year, as inflation eases further and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening. A key risk to this projection, in our... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Focus Peak in the 10-year Treasury yield may be some way off An analysis of the behaviour of the yield of 10-year US Treasuries during the eight major Fed tightening cycles since the 1970s suggests to us that the current sell-off in long-dated US government... 14th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Focus Is inflation about to spell trouble for the stock market? US inflation hit its highest level since the 1990s in October and has now reached a rate that, historically, has coincided with very poor stock market returns. Notwithstanding the uncertainty around... 1st December 2021 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Focus The outlook for E-Z peripheral spreads after COVID-19 We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low... 4th December 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Markets Focus Taking stock of the risks around the US election As the election campaign draws to a close, this Focus looks at how it has affected equity, bond, and currency markets so far and assesses how different outcomes could shift them after Election Day. 29th October 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Focus The outlook for UK financial markets after Brexit Despite lingering uncertainty around the next phase of the UK’s exit from the EU, we think that there is more upside for sterling, Gilt yields, and UK equities. 24th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Focus What Blue Friday means for UK financial markets The UK general election has provided a clearer path towards a resolution to Brexit and looser fiscal policy, which should boost economic activity and push up sterling, UK equities, and Gilt yields... 13th December 2019 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Focus Brexit not the only driver of UK financial markets While we think that the twists and turns of the UK’s journey out of the European Union will have a bearing on Gilts and sterling, that won’t be the only factor driving them. What’s more, we doubt that... 17th July 2019 · 14 mins read
