Global Markets Focus Peak in the 10-year Treasury yield may be some way off An analysis of the behaviour of the yield of 10-year US Treasuries during the eight major Fed tightening cycles since the 1970s suggests to us that the current sell-off in long-dated US government... 14th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Focus Is inflation about to spell trouble for the stock market? US inflation hit its highest level since the 1990s in October and has now reached a rate that, historically, has coincided with very poor stock market returns. Notwithstanding the uncertainty around... 1st December 2021 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Focus The outlook for E-Z peripheral spreads after COVID-19 We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low... 4th December 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Markets Focus Taking stock of the risks around the US election As the election campaign draws to a close, this Focus looks at how it has affected equity, bond, and currency markets so far and assesses how different outcomes could shift them after Election Day. 29th October 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
Global Markets Focus The outlook for UK financial markets after Brexit Despite lingering uncertainty around the next phase of the UK’s exit from the EU, we think that there is more upside for sterling, Gilt yields, and UK equities. 24th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Focus What Blue Friday means for UK financial markets The UK general election has provided a clearer path towards a resolution to Brexit and looser fiscal policy, which should boost economic activity and push up sterling, UK equities, and Gilt yields... 13th December 2019 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Focus Brexit not the only driver of UK financial markets While we think that the twists and turns of the UK’s journey out of the European Union will have a bearing on Gilts and sterling, that won’t be the only factor driving them. What’s more, we doubt that... 17th July 2019 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ equities likely to hold up better than US equities We forecast that the MSCI EMU Index will fall by another 13% this year as the US joins China and the euro-zone in an economic slowdown. Nonetheless, a resolution to the trade war could see equities in... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The implications of slower global growth for EM assets In this Focus, we argue that the bright start to 2019 for most EM assets will not last, as growth in both emerging and advanced economies slows markedly in the next couple of years. Within the EM... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why earnings are likely to weigh on EM equities Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will the IT sector fare worst when the S&P 500 slumps? Although we are not forecasting a recession in the US, we expect the economy there to slow significantly next year and think that this will contribute to a further downturn in the stock market. As a... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
