Global Central Bank Watch What does the market turmoil mean for monetary policy? The gyrations in equity and commodity markets have raised expectations that global monetary policy will remain looser for longer than previously expected, but we think that the fallout will actually... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy to diverge sharply by the end of 2016 The uneven pace of growth in the developed world is likely to lead to a sharper divergence in monetary policy than most anticipate by the end of 2016. US rates look set to increase further than... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Are negative policy rates here to stay? Until recently there was a lot of scepticism that central banks would be able to set policy rates below zero. But in practice, the introduction of negative policy rates by four European central banks... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch More QE and policy divergence on the cards Two themes are likely to dominate global monetary policy over the next couple of years. First, policy in advanced economies in aggregate looks set to remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ persist with... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Has the threat of deflation passed already? Signs that price pressures have picked up a bit during the past month or two have prompted some to suggest that the threat of deflation has vanished almost as suddenly as it appeared. We disagree. In... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Currency movements reinforce the case for looser policy The path of monetary policy in the US and UK is unlikely to change significantly because of the recent appreciation of the dollar and the pound. Admittedly, the strength of these currencies is one... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How negative can interest rates go? Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates into negative territory this month, following in the footsteps of the Danish and Swiss central banks and the ECB. Although central bankers are instinctively... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will deflation affect the outlook for monetary policy? Headline inflation is set to be well below zero for the bulk of this year in many advanced economies, including the US and the euro-zone, and we think it will probably dip below zero in the UK and... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB, BoJ and People’s Bank to loosen policy further Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Recent market turmoil to have mixed impact on monetary policy The turbulence in financial markets in the middle of October won’t have a major impact on monetary policy in developed economies. We do not think it is a sign that the world is heading for another... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The era of global QE is not over Although the Fed is about to end its asset purchases, quantitative easing in the world as a whole still has a long way to go. The BoJ has already been buying assets on a larger scale than the Fed for... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What did we learn from Jackson Hole? Last week’s gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole served to underline the gulf between labour market conditions in the major advanced economies. We suspect that these differences will lead to a... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Should central banks target financial stability? There have been calls in recent months for centralbanks to use interest rates in order to dampen assetprice inflation and to contain the risks which somethink are re-emerging in the financial sector... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch First rate hikes getting closer, but pace of tightening to be slow Recent developments suggest that the Bank of England and, perhaps, the US Federal Reserve may make their first rate hikes a little sooner than we had expected a month or two ago. However, global... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Negative interest rates are less radical than they sound The biggest monetary policy event coming up is likely to be next week’s ECB’s policy-setting meeting, not least because we think the Governing Council will cut its deposit rate to below zero. If so... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Does it matter whether central banks publish minutes? A speech by Mario Draghi last week suggested that it is increasingly likely that the ECB will begin publishing the minutes of its Governing Council meetings in the near future. This would bring it... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
