Global Central Bank Watch The UK (not Japan) likely to tighten policy in August In our view, speculation that the Bank of Japan is preparing to dial back its ultra-loose monetary policy is misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB is likely to leave its policy rates at rock-bottom levels... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed-ECB divergence has another year to run Over the next twelve months we expect the gap in policy rates between the US and euro-zone to continue to widen. The Fed is likely to raise rates every three months while the ECB leaves rates... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Three more Fed hikes this year, ECB and BoJ on hold Despite economic activity slowing in Q1, we expect the Fed to press on with three more rate hikes this year, not least because inflation has been higher than anticipated in recent months. But in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Trade spat will not deflect Fed (or BoE) from hiking We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year, and twice in 2019, but we think it will then begin to loosen policy in 2020. Other than the Bank of England, most major central... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to tighten further than previously expected Central banks in the major advanced economies are now moving in the same direction, but they are doing so at very different speeds. The Fed is tightening policy in earnest, with six rate hikes likely... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB and BoJ in no rush to follow the Fed Contrary to suggestions that the ECB and Bank of Japan are gearing up to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, we think they will be happy to trail a long way behind the Fed and Bank of... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Gradually scaling back support despite low inflation Despite the fact that core inflation in advanced economies has generally remained very low, policymakers are committed to reducing policy support and/or raising interest rates next year. Fed officials... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Policy normalisation underway The Bank of England is set to hike its policy rate for the first time in a decade at its meeting next week, and the US Fed is on course to raise rates again in December, while continuing to unwind QE... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed normalisation not a game changer The US Fed’s decision to begin scaling back its balance sheet nearly eight years after it started QE is a major milestone, but global financial conditions should remain highly accommodative for a long... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed to begin reversing QE and ECB to set out taper plans The US Fed is still on track to start shrinking its balance sheet in the coming month or two, and we think it will raise rates again in December. Meanwhile, the ECB will probably announce in October... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Lower global inflation will not prevent policy “normalisation” The global picture for monetary policy has changed a little recently because inflation has been lower than expected in many countries. We now think the Fed is likely leave its policy rate on hold in... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to press on with hikes; others in no hurry to follow We still think the US Fed is likely to raise interest rates two more times this year and to start gradually shrinking its balance sheet in Q4. But the ECB will probably not start tapering its asset... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is the end of QE (finally) in sight? The US Fed is likely to raise interest rates in June and to begin a very gradual process of balance sheet normalisation before the end of the year. But other major central banks are a long way behind... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to continue tightening; others will be slow to follow Despite the pick-up in global growth in the past few months, most of the world’s major central banks are likely to leave policy highly accommodative this year. The ECB may tweak the language in its... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Needle shifting slowly towards tighter policy Policymakers in the world’s major central banks have struck a more hawkish tone in recent weeks, but we expect policy to be tightened only in the US this year. While the ECB may announce plans to... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
