Global Central Bank Watch Lending facilities offering vital support This month has seen a further shift among the world’s major central banks from essential liquidity provision to recovery support, with a focus on uptake of the various lending programmes. The results... 2nd July 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taking stock of central bank lending facilities Traditionally, when central banks respond to economic downturns, slashing policy interest rates makes for the headline act. This time, with rates already near zero at the onset of the crisis, rate... 7th May 2020 · 19 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Monetary policy pushing new limits What a difference a month makes. At the time of our last Global Central Bank Watch, monetary policymakers in advanced economies had taken a cautious but relatively sanguine attitude to the coronavirus... 8th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Virus strengthens case for EM cuts; little effect on DMs With the coronavirus spreading faster and set to have bigger economic effects than initially assumed, many people are asking how and when central banks will respond. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)... 14th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Further loosening to come, but to little effect Following a wholesale shift towards policy loosening over recent months, there is now a general sense in financial markets and the media that central banks around the world have hit the pause button... 11th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Powerless central banks driven to tiers The use of tiered interest rates in Europe and Japan has given central banks a little more scope to cut interest rates without doing serious damage to the banking sector. But tiering has arguably also... 26th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Personnel changes point to looser policy Recent news about a number of staff changes among the world’s central banks has supported our view that widespread policy loosening is to come. As the next ECB President, we suspect that Christine... 11th July 2019 · 15 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Price level targets wouldn’t solve policy problems The past month has seen a significant change in tone from the world’s major central banks and in expectations of their policies. As fears over trade tensions have mounted and economic data have... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Tweaks to forward guidance won’t be enough While the major advanced economy central banks have made no significant policy changes in recent weeks, a key theme has been a continued shift in their forward guidance to imply that interest rates... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Yield curves flatten as case for looser policy builds The flattening of yields curves over recent weeks has raised fears of a sharp economic slowdown to come. Central banks are unlikely to be led by the views of bond markets, not least because their... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Data scrutiny to destroy case for policy tightening The latest communications from advanced economy central banks imply that they have shifted away from a normalisation path towards closely monitoring incoming data to ascertain whether additional... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Shifting out of normalisation mode Signs of weakness in the global economy seem to have prompted a significant change of tack from central banks. Even in the US, where growth has so far held up well, the Federal Reserve appears... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Shakier global backdrop won’t deter the Fed & ECB The Fed looks to be on course to raise interest rates by a further 25bp at its December meeting in spite of financial market jitters and disappointing news on the global economy. But as financial... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Equity sell-off unlikely to derail policy tightening Despite the recent plunge in equity prices, it looks highly likely that the Fed will raise interest rates again in December and then press ahead with two more rate hikes in the first half of 2019. But... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed still going it (almost) alone We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed pressing on with rate hikes, others well behind Fed officials look increasingly confident in their plans to raise interest rates twice more this year while ECB officials are on course to end their asset purchases by December. Next year, though, we... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
