Europe Economics Update Macron’s measures unlikely to boost the economy Protests in France are likely to put a serious dent in GDP growth in Q4. And while the giveaways announced yesterday will boost disposable incomes next year, any positive effect on the economy is... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French riots add to downside risks to outlook Riots over living costs in France have not altered our view that the economy will outperform most of its neighbours in the next two years. But they highlight how difficult it will be for President... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling consumer confidence not as bad as it looks The recent fall in euro-zone consumer confidence has reflected a decline in optimism about the general economic outlook, which may well continue. But this need not imply that a slowdown in spending... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Higher interest rates in Italy to offset fiscal stimulus We doubt that the recent rally in Italian government bonds will last. And higher yields are already feeding through to higher borrowing costs in the private sector. We think that this will offset any... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch housing boom near its peak The housing boom that has been one of the prime drivers of Dutch economic growth in recent years is likely to be close to its peak. As a result, growth is likely to slow in the coming years. But we do... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No deal Brexit hit to euro-zone would be manageable Provided that it is reasonably orderly, a “no deal Brexit” would probably reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by 0.1-0.2% points next year, though the impact would be much larger for Ireland... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU relations freeze bodes ill for Swiss economy Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t bail out Italy The ECB has a range of tools at its disposal to respond to the situation in Italy and its effects on the wider euro-zone. But for it to use them, there would have to be a serious escalation of the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets, not the EU, could change Italy’s plans The small changes that Italy’s Government has made to its Budget are unlikely to placate the European Commission. So Italy looks set for greater budget oversight, which could eventually lead to... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway’s economy to slow in 2019 Norway’s economic slowdown in Q3 reflected temporary factors. But growth still looks set to weaken next year as oil prices fall. So we expect the krone to weaken and the equity market to underperform. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests highlight Italy risks The EU bank stress tests suggest that even in a severe economic downturn, the region’s largest lenders would remain solvent. That said, the EBA’s very pessimistic “adverse scenario” might still be too... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to tighten faster than investors expect While the minutes to the Riksbank’s October meeting all but confirmed that interest rates will start to rise in the coming months, a December hike is not a done deal. But regardless of whether the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Emissions testing to blame for Q3 slowdown Data on car production imply that delays related to emissions testing may have been entirely responsible for the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.2% in Q3. While the underlying... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticks to its plans despite weaker data The ECB today reaffirmed its plans to normalise monetary policy gradually, expressing little concern about the recent run of weaker economic data or the clash between Italy and the European Commission... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
