Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s German and Spanish consumer prices data support expectations that euro-zone inflation reversed last month’s decline as energy inflation rose. But underlying price pressures are still... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone’s economic upturn has gained more pace, but inflation expectations are rising only slowly. This supports the ECB’s very gradual... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tendency Survey (Nov.) & GDP (Q3.) Despite a slowdown in consumer spending growth in Q3, Swedish GDP growth remained strong due to a sharp pick-up in investment. Meanwhile, November’s rise in the Economic Tendency Indicator suggests... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Nov.) November’s rise in German business sentiment suggests that firms are unfazed by political uncertainty. Even if voters have to return to the polls, we expect the economy to do very well in the coming... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy is growing very strongly and we doubt that political uncertainty in Germany will change that. 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in September adds to the evidence that net exports boosted GDP in Q3. And despite the appreciation of the euro this year, the outlook for exports is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) The flash estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy is in very good health. Admittedly, industrial production fell in September and the renewed rise in the euro exchange rate is a... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swe. Consumer Prices (Oct.), Nor. & Fin. GDP (Q3) As October’s drop in Swedish inflation was almost entirely due to energy, we are not convinced that it means QE will be extended in December. Meanwhile, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) Q3’s impressive 0.8% rise in German GDP suggests that growth this year and next will be slightly stronger than even our above consensus forecasts had implied. This may well increase the pressure from... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Sep.) Today’s French and Italian industrial production data, along with other national data released earlier in the week, suggest that euro-zone output fell by 0.6% in September. But forward-looking... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp decline in inflation over the past 15 months has largely run its course, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. We think that core inflation will remain well below the Norges Bank’s 2.5%... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Although retail sales rose in September, the increase was not sufficient for the sector to match Q2’s performance in Q3. This suggests that total household spending was behind the slowdown in... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Sep.) The drop in German industrial production in September did not reverse August’s sharp rise. The sector performed well in Q3 as a whole and surveys point to an acceleration to come. 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) The final estimate of October’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy made a strong start to Q4. But there are still only tentative signs that inflationary pressures are building. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Oct.) & Swedish Production Index. (Sep.) October’s weak Swiss inflation data support our view that SNB interest rate hikes are a very distant prospect. Elsewhere, Swedish production data suggest that quarterly GDP growth slowed in Q3. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs are consistent with strong growth in industrial output. But only in Sweden do we expect this to put sustained upward pressure on inflation. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
