Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jan.), PMIs (Feb.) & Greek GDP (Q4) The recent softness of euro-zone retail sales is probably due to temporary factors and surveys bode well for the outlook. Meanwhile, the Greek economy finished last year on a weak note. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4, Breakdown) The first breakdown of Italy’s GDP in Q4 showed that the slowdown in growth was driven by household spending. This is perhaps unsurprising given that real wages are falling, and might also explain the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate held steady in January and the number of unemployed people only edged down, surveys suggest that the labour market recovery should regain momentum. But the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4, breakdown) The first breakdown of Spanish GDP showed encouragingly broad-based growth in Q4 despite the effects of the political crisis in Catalonia. Meanwhile, the surveys paint a positive picture of the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Swiss economy ended 2017 on a fairly strong note and the surveys paint a positive picture for 2018. But with inflation set to remain subdued, we think that the SNB will wait until 2020 to raise... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to continued strong growth. But this only seems to be causing underlying inflationary pressure to build in Sweden. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in headline inflation does not change our view that the ECB will drop the easing bias from its forward guidance at its meeting on 8th March. But with core inflation still weak and... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4) Sweden, Finland and Denmark all grew strongly in Q4 last year. While growth in Sweden and Finland is likely to outpace that in Demark in 2018, the big picture is that the outlook for each economy is... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in German inflation reflected falls in the volatile food and energy components. But the still subdued rate of core inflation will encourage the ECB to take a cautious approach to... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy continued to grow strongly in early 2018, but that inflation expectations remain subdued. This supports our view that the... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tendency Survey (Feb.) & Trade (Jan.) The recent softening of the Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But the survey still implies that growth will remain strong. 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in Ifo business sentiment matches the message from other surveys that German GDP growth is nearing its peak. Nevertheless, the outlook remains bright. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the euro-zone Composite PMI remained at a high level and consistent with continued healthy GDP growth in early 2018. This might encourage the ECB to signal before long... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s small fall in German investor sentiment was unsurprising against a backdrop of falling equity prices and a strong euro. The fact that the majority of investors expect economic conditions to... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s drop in Swedish inflation was entirely due to changes in the weights used to calculate the price index. While inflation looks set to be lower in 2018 than we previously anticipated, the... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) While the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus was little changed in Q4, overall net trade seems to have boosted GDP growth. We expect trade to contribute positively to growth again this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
