Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) August’s labour market data won’t deter the ECB from announcing later this month that it will taper its asset purchases next year. But the only gradual recovery in the labour market suggests that the... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) September’s Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs both rose to high levels. But while fairly strong growth is unlikely to push inflation up in Switzerland, price pressures are mounting in Sweden. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone inflation data won’t stop the ECB from announcing in October its plan to taper its asset purchases next year. But the data suggest that the Bank will proceed... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Sep.) & Danish GDP (Q2, 2nd estimate) September’s rebound in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer leaves it consistent with a pick-up in annual GDP growth to around 2%. But the KOF has overstated growth recently and, in any case, inflation... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s flash inflation data for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone inflation was probably unchanged from August’s 1.5%. And the likely falls in core inflation in both Germany and Spain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Sep.) The rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment in September suggests that the eurozone’s economic recovery will continue at a decent pace. Along with the pick-up in consumer inflation... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Survey (Sep.) In September a sharp rise in manufacturing sentiment drove the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator to its highest since 2011. With the growth outlook strong and inflation expectations rebounding, we... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Sep.) September’s fall in German Ifo business sentiment still leaves it pointing to very strong GDP growth. While Germany looks set for lengthy coalition negotiations following yesterdays’ federal election... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the recovery has regained momentum after a brief summer lull. While this will embolden policymakers, as inflation is set to rise only... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) September’s larger-than-expected rise in German investor sentiment may partly reflect reduced fears about the strength of the euro and suggests that the economy will continue to perform well. Indeed... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) After falling in Q1, Ireland’s GDP only partially rebounded in Q2. That said, the data are notoriously unreliable as a measure of domestic activity. Other more reliable indicators suggest that the... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Trade (Jul.) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data reinforce our view that the ECB will set out in October its plans to taper its asset purchases to zero in the first nine months of 2018. Meanwhile, July’s fall in... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) Despite July’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production, growth in the sector will probably slow in Q3. But with more timely survey indicators still strong, any slowdown should be modest. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation was above both the Riksbank’s forecast and its target in August. With the strengthening economy suggesting that inflationary pressure is building, we think that the Riksbank will soon start... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Aug.) In August, inflation in Norway fell further below the Norges Bank’s target. While inflation should stop falling by the end of the year, it will rebound only slowly. So interest rate hikes are a very... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q2) Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. While the trade balance appears to be declining a bit faster than we expected as a result of the strong króna... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
