Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) After falling only slightly in May, the EC’s measure of economic sentiment provides some reassurance that the softness in activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss KOF The Swedish economy made a strong start to 2018 and the outlook is positive. Healthy growth is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise interest rates at the end of... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The stabilisation of the German Ifo in May is encouraging and provides some hope that a rebound in growth is on the cards in Q2. We doubt that the economy will regain all of its lost momentum, but it... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Unemployment (Mar.) Norway’s labour market recovery looks set to gather pace in the coming months, but wage growth is likely to remain subdued. So we still think that the Norges Bank will wait longer than most expect... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1, Breakdown) Q1’s 0.3% rise in German GDP marked a weak start to the year. But temporary factors were partly to blame and the strength of investment in particular is an encouraging sign that the upturn still has... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s fall in the euro-zone PMI yet again partly reflected temporary factors, but the continued softness of the surveys in Q2 is certainly a concern. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), IP (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1 largely reflected temporary effects. So we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better over the rest of the year. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q1) The sharper-than-expected slowdowns in both German and Dutch GDP in Q1 suggest that there is a risk that euro-zone GDP will be revised down from the first estimate of 0.4% q/q. But with Q1’s weakness... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Finland GDP (Q1) Norway’s economy did not perform as well in Q1 as the headline growth numbers imply. But we remain optimistic about growth over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Finland’s economy put in a strong... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI (Apr.) Easter timing effects distorted April’s inflation data. Looking ahead, inflationary pressure is building in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, in Norway. Inflation is much more subdued in Switzerland. 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) March’s improvements in German industrial production and the trade balance support our view that while Q1 was a pretty poor quarter, this will not mark the start of a sustained economic slowdown. 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending had a weak first quarter. And April’s Composite PMI implies that the pace of GDP growth is unlikely to fully rebound after a slow Q1... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Mar.) Swedish private sector production was unchanged in March meaning that growth slowed over Q1 as a whole. Nevertheless, this still implies that GDP expanded at a respectable rate. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & PPI (Mar.) April’s unexpected fall in inflation partly reflected Easter timing effects, providing some hope that it will prove temporary. But with underlying price pressures subdued, the ECB will continue to... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Temporary factors explain some of the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1. We doubt that the economy will regain all of its lost momentum, but surveys suggest that growth will pick back up. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s manufacturing PMIs provide some reassurance that the Swiss and Norwegian economies bounced back after making slow starts to the year. Sweden’s PMI was quite weak, but other survey indicators... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
