Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Mar.) Despite falling in March, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is consistent with annual GDP growth remaining fairly healthy. But with inflation subdued, we expect the SNB to keep interest rates on hold... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Mar.) The further fall in the EC’s measure of economic sentiment in March echoes the message from the other surveys that euro-zone GDP growth may be at its peak. And with consumers’ inflation expectations... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Mar.), Trade & PPI (Feb.) The Swedish economy has lost some momentum of late, but growth still looks set to be healthy. And with inflationary pressures gradually rising, we expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates this year... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (Mar.) March’s PMI and Ifo surveys point to a softening of euro-zone growth, which we had expected after such a strong run and which has not caused us to change our upbeat GDP forecasts. But it certainly... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) March’s sharp decline in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment highlights the risks to the economy. While Germany would be hit harder than most by a trade war, for now the outlook is positive. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed in January, and since then survey indicators of export orders have weakened slightly. Nevertheless, we think that the euro-zone’s trade surplus... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q4) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data support our view that the ECB will act very patiently in normalising its monetary policy stance. Indeed, higher interest rates remain a long way off. 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Irish GDP (Q4) Ireland’s GDP had another very strong year in 2017. While that tells us little about actual economic activity taking place in the country, other more reliable indicators suggest that the economy... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Production (Jan.) & Employment (Q4) January’s fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a weak start to 2018, but much of the decline was due to temporary weather effects. The business surveys suggest that once this volatility... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) With Swedish inflation unchanged at a joint 10-month low in February, we see the Riksbank changing its forward guidance next month to signal that it will raise interest rates later than it previously... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Feb) & Iceland GDP (Q4) Inflation in Norway rose quite sharply in February, but we do not think that it is about to surge. Meanwhile, Icelandic GDP growth would have been negative in Q4 was it not for a one-off intellectual... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Industrial Production (Jan.) Large declines in energy output as a result unseasonably-warm temperatures explain much of the weakness in industrial production across the euro-zone in January. Meanwhile, the business surveys remain... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by net exports. Timelier evidence suggests that growth is no longer accelerating, but we still expect the... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.) & Swedish Production (Jan.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in February to a five-month low will add to the Swiss National Bank’s caution ahead of its monetary policy meeting next week. Indeed, subdued inflation is likely... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jan.), PMIs (Feb.) & Greek GDP (Q4) The recent softness of euro-zone retail sales is probably due to temporary factors and surveys bode well for the outlook. Meanwhile, the Greek economy finished last year on a weak note. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4, Breakdown) The first breakdown of Italy’s GDP in Q4 showed that the slowdown in growth was driven by household spending. This is perhaps unsurprising given that real wages are falling, and might also explain the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read