Europe Commercial Property Update Will German ecommerce accelerate post-COVID-19? Recent data provide an indication that the virus outbreak will likely result in a faster online transition in Germany. The impact on instore demand will add to the pressures already facing retailers... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Upward pressure on Vienna office yields still likely Depressed investment activity and a weak rental outlook are set to put upward pressure on office yields. That said, given that prime property values have been slower to adjust than we had initially... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices offer cold comfort Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Imminent rise in bankruptcies to weigh on values Government action has meant corporate bankruptcies have remained low, which has prevented a sharp rise in tenancy defaults and has supported income security on leases. But, as this support is... 15th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do recent sales data imply for the retail sector? The recent strength of retail sales data overstates demand on European prime high streets, with spending by tourists still absent and online purchases making an above-average contribution in most... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rebound in trade to boost industrial rents in ports Despite the sharp drop in GDP, the relatively small fall in world trade has meant that industrial rents in port cities held up better than expected during H1. And we think that the ongoing recovery in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What to make of recent moves in REIT prices? Recent moves in real estate equity prices suggest that there is upside risk to our forecasts for industrial property values this year. However, even the industrial sector will not be immune if rising... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rents downgraded in euro-zone and CEE The falls recorded so far, most notably in the CEE region, coupled with our view that the initial recovery in retail sales in Europe has started to run out of steam, has prompted us to downgrade our... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo offices to suffer despite economic outperformance Although the Norwegian economy is set to contract less sharply than most of Europe this year, the fact that weakness in occupier demand has occurred alongside a large boost to supply means that Oslo... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Yield compression still on the cards next year With accommodative monetary policy anchoring bond yields, we think that yield compression in the euro-zone is set to resume next year. But the balance of risks have clearly changed post-virus. 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Revising our 2020 European investment forecasts Despite sharply lower investment in Q2, solid Q1 activity and the faster-than-expected economic recovery means we now think that total pan-Europe (ex UK) investment in 2020 will be only around 15%... 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Romanian industrial take-up to wane Although demand for Romanian industrial space held up in H1, we expect it to weaken over the rest of the year as consumer demand falters and the economy recovers only slowly. Combined with incentives... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is WFH a double-edged sword for Dutch offices? A more favourable economic outlook should support occupier demand and thereby prime Dutch office rents over the next few years. And while the shift to more remote working poses a risk, we think that... 31st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slow consumer recovery to hold back Polish retail rents The outlook for the Polish economy is better than in much of Europe. However, we still expect retail rents to end the year lower than in 2019, with the recent rebound in retail spending unlikely to be... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
