Energy Update Flood of LNG supply will push EU gas prices down Europe’s natural gas price will continue its downward trend in 2024-25 as more LNG supply enters the market. And while there may be some recovery in demand as prices fall, we think there has been a... 8th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall by the end of next year Rising OPEC+ output in Q2 2024 should leave global crude supply less constrained than we had previously expected. This, together with only modest growth in global oil demand, should push the crude... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+’s last stand The voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ this week will support oil prices in the first quarter of next year but there is clearly dissent among the ranks. We think OPEC+’s next move will be to... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Guyana oil production in for the long haul Guyana’s oil production looks set to grow quickly over the next few years even if the total volume can only play a small role in raising global supply. That said, substantial reserves and low break... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Weaker demand to depress coal prices Coal prices in both Europe and Asia will fall next year as growth in demand eases. But the fall in Europe should be larger as we expect demand there to outright contract. This should ensure that coal... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Biden, Xi and energy market scenarios The US and China once again backed the G20 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity this week (from 2020), a goal which would help to keep the path to net zero emissions by 2050 on track... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will a “Dead Cow” become Argentina’s life saver? The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export... 8th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Approaching peak-pessimism for clean energy equities The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG poses risks for the EU but new supply on its way EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk. That said, prices should fall back next year as a significant amount of LNG export... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Argentina’s shale poised to rise regardless of elections Argentina’s oil and gas production growth has slowed sharply recently due to pipeline capacity constraints. New projects should ease these bottlenecks, and production should rise from 2024. Admittedly... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly How high can oil prices go? In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Weekly Wrap to clients of the Energy Service. It was generally a strong week for commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions have... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Nuclear power still very much in the energy mix After several years in a post-Fukushima wilderness, nuclear power’s ability to provide low-emission and reliable electricity generation has slowly brought it back into favour around the world. Several... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: raising oil output will be a long journey The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed... 16th October 2023 · 3 mins read
