Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A perfect storm at sea The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Separating fact from myth about renewable capacity The target from COP28 to triple global renewable generating capacity this decade is encouragingly ambitious. But as our Climate Reporting Tools show, the goal will be easier to achieve in some... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Flood of LNG supply will push EU gas prices down Europe’s natural gas price will continue its downward trend in 2024-25 as more LNG supply enters the market. And while there may be some recovery in demand as prices fall, we think there has been a... 8th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall by the end of next year Rising OPEC+ output in Q2 2024 should leave global crude supply less constrained than we had previously expected. This, together with only modest growth in global oil demand, should push the crude... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+’s last stand The voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ this week will support oil prices in the first quarter of next year but there is clearly dissent among the ranks. We think OPEC+’s next move will be to... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Guyana oil production in for the long haul Guyana’s oil production looks set to grow quickly over the next few years even if the total volume can only play a small role in raising global supply. That said, substantial reserves and low break... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Weaker demand to depress coal prices Coal prices in both Europe and Asia will fall next year as growth in demand eases. But the fall in Europe should be larger as we expect demand there to outright contract. This should ensure that coal... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Biden, Xi and energy market scenarios The US and China once again backed the G20 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity this week (from 2020), a goal which would help to keep the path to net zero emissions by 2050 on track... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will a “Dead Cow” become Argentina’s life saver? The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export... 8th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Approaching peak-pessimism for clean energy equities The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Why isn’t the oil market more worried? We think the cautious oil market reaction to the outbreak of conflict in Israel probably reflects the huge uncertainty about the eventual outcome, but also a somewhat lower “Middle East” risk premium. 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG poses risks for the EU but new supply on its way EU natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks highlighting that a reliance on LNG imports is not without risk. That said, prices should fall back next year as a significant amount of LNG export... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Argentina’s shale poised to rise regardless of elections Argentina’s oil and gas production growth has slowed sharply recently due to pipeline capacity constraints. New projects should ease these bottlenecks, and production should rise from 2024. Admittedly... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
