DM Markets Chart Pack A big further rally in Gilts this year seems unlikely to us While the Bank of England’s temporary U-turn on its balance sheet has caused Gilts to rally strongly, we suspect their yields will remain high for some time yet. 29th September 2022 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think risky assets will struggle as optimism fades The rebound in the prices of “risky” assets has stalled recently and we expect it to go into reverse over the rest of this year as economic growth in many major DMs disappoints and appetite for risk... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Markets are creaking but not (yet) breaking So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Some signs of strains in markets but no panic yet In light of the growing economic and financial fallout from the war in Ukraine, this publication takes stock of the various signs of stress across the global financial system. We intend to update the... 3rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary tightening may continue to limit risky assets’ gains Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would... 16th February 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fed’s inflation tolerance may lead to higher bond yields A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation. 25th August 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We still expect higher yields & equity rotation in the US The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the... 24th June 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We doubt inflation will send the equity rally into reverse While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. 20th May 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We forecast higher yields, a stronger $ & gains in equities We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We don’t think this is the start of a rout in bond markets In our view, central banks’ cautious approach to tightening means that the yields of 10-year government bonds will rise only slowly in the next few years, even as the global economy recovers further. 18th February 2021 · 7 mins read
