DM Markets Chart Pack Twin rally in equities and bonds unlikely to last Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the twin rally in US equity and bond markets will end before long. 18th February 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equities likely to rise more slowly in 2020 than 2019 Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Central bank asset purchases likely to keep yields low Although we think that the Fed is now done cutting rates, we think that more easing is coming outside the US and that major central banks will remain net buyers of bonds. With this in mind, we... 28th November 2019 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Relentless rally in US equities unlikely to continue The strong performance of US equities this year has continued to be, at least in part, fuelled by expectations that growth in corporate earnings there will be much faster than elsewhere. Nonetheless... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack The big rally in government bonds might be over We think that there is very little, or no, scope for rate expectations and bond yields to renew their downward trend in most economies, given how far they had already tumbled before their recent... 12th July 2019 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Unlike bond yields, we expect equities to fall further Investors are now even more dovish that we have long been about the outlook for monetary policy in the US. As such, we doubt that Treasury yields will drop further. However, we don’t expect looser... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Bond market points to trouble ahead for equities Equities in the US have continued to rise in the past month, but the recent inversion of parts of the Treasury yield curve and weak economic data doesn’t bode well for the US stock market. We forecast... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy likely to keep “core” bond yields low We are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy in most developed markets. If we are right, “core” government bond yields are likely to fall, or remain very low, this year. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US dollar likely to benefit from safe-haven demand We expect a slowdown in the US and the rest of the world to put renewed pressure on global stock markets this year. If we are right, we suspect that the dollar would get a boost, as it did late last... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack More weakness ahead for US stock market Worries about the prospects for the US economy have contributed to the ongoing flattening of the US Treasury yield curve and the sell-off in the S&P 500. We think that both those trends will continue... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Italian bonds and equities likely to remain under fire Although the 10-year government bond yield in Italy has already climbed by about 60bp since plans were announced for an EU-defying budget deficit, we think that it will rise by a similar amount... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the dollar continue to recover? The dollar has continued to recover over the past month. This has coincided with a further increase in the gap between 10-year government bond yields in the US and elsewhere. Although this gap began... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Tougher times may lie ahead for the IT sector Equities have had a tough time over the past month, with the information technology (IT) sector in the US hit particularly hard since mid-March. The poor performance of the IT sector cannot be pinned... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will rising bond yields undermine equities again? The correction in global equities earlier this month coincided with a further rise in US Treasury yields, as higher inflation and the prospect of extra fiscal stimulus led investors to conclude that... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will volatility in the Treasury market pick up in 2018? Volatility in the US Treasury market remains very low by the standards of the past. Although we expect it to rise next year as the Fed catches investors a bit off guard, we doubt that it will surge. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
