DM Markets Chart Pack Will the US stock market run out of steam? Although the US stock market has rebounded in the past few months as the news from China has improved and the dollar has weakened, we doubt it will power ahead for three key reasons. First, we expect... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack What’s behind the dollar’s slide? The US dollar has slid against other major currencies since its peak on 20th January. This has been due to higher commodity prices, greater appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of expectations... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Does sterling have further to fall? The possibility of the UK leaving the EU appears to have had a substantial effect on the value of sterling against the US dollar. Indeed, we think cable would have stayed close to $1.50 had fears of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds – is Japan the next Switzerland? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen to a record low of less than 0.1% following the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its deposit rate to -0.1%. We now forecast that the 10-year JGB... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Higher US corporate bond yields do not signal recession The performance of US corporate bonds since the end of November has been poor. For example, the average yield of seasoned issues rated Baa by Moody’s has increased nearly 10bp, extending its gain... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How exposed are US Treasuries to tighter Fed policy? The broad-based strength of the last two US employment reports has seen investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. Investors now expect the federal funds rate to rise at a faster pace than... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack What next for the US dollar? Over the past month, the US dollar’s performance against other “major” currencies has been mixed. It has fared poorly against those of the two major commodity exporters, Australia and Canada, which... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is the Fed playing “catch-up” with the bond market? The federal funds rate is now expected to rise to less than 3% in a decade’s time, judging by the risk-neutral US Treasury yield curve. This rate remains well below the average projection of FOMC... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the dollar’s rebound to continue We think the widespread fall in the dollar against other major currencies in the wake of the “devaluation” of the Chinese renminbi was primarily a response to a shift in expectations for US monetary... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How has the lower oil price affected US credit spreads? It is tempting to interpret the recent increase in the average spread of US corporate bonds over Treasuries as a sign that the economic recovery is faltering. However, the increase appears to have... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in German Bund yields unlikely to last Although the 10-year German Bund yield has risen significantly since late-April, we doubt it will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fresh euro weakness should buoy German equities Although it has still been one of the best-performing developed world stock markets this year, the DAX index has come off the boil over the past month. We do not expect its recent weakness to continue... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US corporate bonds should weather Fed tightening Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Swiss franc’s recent depreciation unlikely to last The Swiss franc has depreciated against the euro in the past month, despite the fact that the euro itself has weakened on a trade-weighted basis. This appears to be partly a correction following the... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally to shift from euro-zone to Japan Euro-zone equities have surged since the end of December, with the DAX up nearly 10%. The key driver of returns has been the anticipation and subsequent launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
