In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and talks about the AI’s transformational promise in the wake of a sharp market sell-off in stocks linked to the emergent technology.
Plus, Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team preview the coming week’s general election and discuss when we could see details on tax and spending plans from Keir Starmer’s government if the Labour government win on Thursday.
Finally, as shipping costs rebound, Simon MacAdam speaks to Leah Fahy about what’s driving their resurgence and whether this presents an inflation risk.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode
First round results of France’s parliamentary election
Final results still uncertain but fiscal outlook will be worse after the election The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that
Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump
Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly
UK election 2024
The economic and market impacts of artificial intelligence
The more we read about AI’s potential economic consequences, the more it becomes clear that the current research fails to provide a coherent and consistent framework for understanding its whole impact. To that end, we are excited to be able to provide our clients with a complete assessment what artificial intelligence will mean for the world economy and financial markets.
How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have?
If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office
Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk
Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down? Our senior Europe and Markets economists held this...
