Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb 2025) The large fall in exports in February was to be expected given the (albeit temporary) imposition of tariffs on goods imports into the US that month. While Canada may have gotten off relatively lightly... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs and our downgraded forecast for the S&P 500 We are significantly downgrading our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 for two key reasons. The first is yesterday’s announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed. In such... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of US tariffs on Asia Asian economies will be hit harder than most by US reciprocal tariffs. We were already expecting more rate cuts than the consensus in most countries in the region, but there’s now a risk that central... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) The easing in house price growth in both February and March suggests momentum in the housing market is waning. What’s more, as we now think the Bank of England will press pause on the interest rate... 2nd April 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Scenarios of what US tariffs mean for the UK economy Our scenarios of how different rates of US tariffs on UK exports could influence the UK are designed to provide clients with some real-time context when President Trump announces tariffs tonight... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will “Liberation Day” free the market from its shackles? Volatility in the US stock market hasn’t picked up sharply since Donald Trump returned to the White House, despite a very high degree of uncertainty about his economic policies. That may remain the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply price pressures easing outside of the US The latest PMIs suggest that global industry is heading into Q2 on a weaker footing. Meanwhile, price pressures accelerated sharply in the US but generally eased elsewhere. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data largely static for now February’s JOLTS data show a labour market settling back into its pre-pandemic norms. With limited signs of DOGE’s trimming of the federal workforce in the survey, all eyes will now turn to March’s... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025) The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Mar. 2025) The stagnation in Nationwide house prices in March suggests any boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases ahead of the rise in stamp duty from today may have run its course and/or been... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia will only cut rates to 3.6% While the RBA is becoming increasingly confident that inflation will sustainably return to target, we still expect its easing cycle to be shallower than most anticipate. 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA rate cuts won’t do much for housing affordability Australian house price growth remained soft in March, amid still-weak housing demand. Although the RBA’s easing cycle could help deliver a shift in momentum later this year, stretched affordability is... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Apr. 25) 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) With consumers seemingly keeping spending on a tight leash, there is a risk that the RBA will loosen policy a bit more than we currently expect this cycle. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 2025) While business conditions were unchanged in the latest Tankan survey, the survey suggests that an increasingly overheating economy is creating strong price pressures. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
