Capital Daily What to make of the sudden sell-off in bonds We think the turnaround in longer-dated Treasury yields has bit further to run, if – and it’s a big if – the worst is now over for the US stock market. 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond? 1744900200 The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston best-placed for 2025-29 apartments recovery The apartment market is on track to recover over our five-year forecast, with new supply falling back sharply, while demand remains solid. However, the size and speed of recovery will differ widely by... 7th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC’s surveys hold up, but already out of date The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys were nowhere near as bad as we feared, but that may only be because the survey periods preceded the most recent tariff announcements... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How an escalation of the trade war could affect ANZ Australia and New Zealand are safe havens in the current global trade storm because they have small manufacturing sectors, export little to the US and haven’t been hit with high US tariffs. We’re... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 2025) The 0.5% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in March provides further evidence that the boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases before the rise in stamp duty on 1 st April had already run... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump shock: What to expect next on tariffs Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market but, as President Donald Trump is now finding out, the equity market can be pretty intimidating... 6th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Outlook still gloomy despite tariff relief Canadian exporters escaped “Liberation Day” relatively unscathed and, thanks to more stringent measures on other economies, have even been gifted a competitive advantage in some industries by the US’... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA could cut rates further, as headwinds mount Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the Australian economy is likely to be modest, we believe second-order effects could be more damaging, due to negative spillovers from key trading partners... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tariff fallout reduces chances of near-term rate The uncertainty from the recent US tariff announcements has reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. But if we’re right that the hit to Japan’s economy will ultimately be... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
