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Inflation has picked up in the UK but, unlike in the US, we doubt that any worries about stronger price pressures will be sustained. That’s why we still expect Gilt yields to fall. UK CPI inflation , released earlier today, went back above the Bank of …
20th November 2024
We doubt upward pressure on Japan’s long-term bond yields will persist for long, as the Bank of Japan tightens policy by less than investors anticipate and yields in the US remain quite stable. The 10-year JGB yield has risen a lot since October. Despite …
19th November 2024
Although last week’s pull-back in the S&P 500 coincided with a big increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, we don’t think this marks the start of prolonged period of weakness in US equities driven by government bonds. Our view is that the S&P 500 will resume …
18th November 2024
The US dollar continues to build on its post-election rally, with the DXY index now at its highest level in more than a year. While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term given the extent and speed of the greenback’s rally since late …
15th November 2024
We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds with plans to impose additional tariffs. China’s …
The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the greenback will make further gains over the next year as …
14th November 2024
We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated ones. As had been widely expected prior to the election, …
While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. Today’s inflation release showed that US CPI for October …
13th November 2024
We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. Although the S&P 500 was struggling today at the time of writing, it had been …
12th November 2024
The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than investors expect, we forecast the euro to slide to …
11th November 2024
Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy? What bearing will political uncertainty have on its financial markets? How will Donald Trump’s pending return …
While President Trump’s return to the White House and the apparent Republican sweep in Congress made a big splash in currency markets – Wednesday saw the largest single day rise in the DXY index since 2016 – some of that rally has since reversed, leaving …
8th November 2024
We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm, but not far beyond as the resulting bubble bursts. …
With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near-term economic outlook. While the global easing cycle is …
7th November 2024
We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher projections for the 10-year Treasury yield and the greenback. …
This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term. The US election has seen a stark shift to the Republican Party, with Trump claiming victory in the Presidential race and …
6th November 2024
Although the outcome of the US election plainly matters for Treasuries, there is a risk of overegging this. After all, a large part of the recent moves in Treasury yields seem to have been due to the economy rather than the election. Our sense is that a …
5th November 2024
Investors are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market, even allowing for the big moves that we’ve already seen in it recently. That’s hardly a surprise, given the result of tomorrow’s election is on a knife-edge and the contrast in the protagonists’ …
4th November 2024
Currency markets are ending the week broadly unchanged, on net, leaving the US dollar near a three-month high ahead of next week’s pivotal election. With polls continuing to point to a very tight race in the swing states and betting markets shifting back …
1st November 2024
October’s distorted payrolls probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate markets. Treasury yields initially plunged in response to the …
We think that if Vice President Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president Trump is elected, we would expect an initial adverse …
While the market fallout from yesterday’s UK budget announcement is still a very long way from the 2022 “mini-budget” debacle, the surge in Gilt yields and fall in sterling over the past couple of days has some similarities to that episode. A meltdown of …
31st October 2024
While inflation in the US and elsewhere has generally converged towards target this year, it might continue to haunt central bankers for a while yet, and in turn keep investors on their toes. There was nothing too scary in the inflation data released …
The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less monetary easing. We will be reviewing our forecast for Bank …
30th October 2024
With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer. First, while Trump appears to have the momentum, the election is far from a done …
29th October 2024
Equities have held up well in the face of the sell-off in Treasuries over the past month, although they have struggled to break to new highs over the past couple of weeks. But w e doubt that pattern will last; our base case remains that bond yields will …
28th October 2024
While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear. We think a Republican “sweep” would probably lead to …
The US dollar has continued to edge higher this week even in the absence of much economic data, suggesting that the gradual shift in the US election odds in favour of former president Trump continues to provide a tailwind for the greenback. With a week …
25th October 2024
We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. At face value, it’s surprising how well Asia’s currencies …
We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region. European equities have risen, on net, so far today, more so …
24th October 2024
We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms. The Japanese yen has fallen by more than 1% against the US dollar today, adding up to a roughly 8% fall since its …
23rd October 2024
The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long, though a Trump win would likely lift yields higher. …
22nd October 2024
Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet. Even though headline and core inflation are cooling, the labour market remains too tight for comfort …
The depreciation pressure on the renminbi has abated over recent months and the USD/CNY rate is currently trading around our end-2024 target of 7.10. But with US interest rate expectations on the rise again, China’s stimulus announcements continuing to …
21st October 2024
The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come. Chinese equities did not react much to the larger-than-expected …
The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other G10 economies. With the US election drawing nearer and …
18th October 2024
With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view, that is still far from fully priced in. Since early …
The dovish tone at today’s ECB monetary policy meeting supports our view that the ECB will cut by 25bp at the December meeting. However, the risks to our policy rate forecasts are increasingly skewed to the downside. What’s more, we doubt that the easing …
17th October 2024
Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect long-dated bond yields to stay near their current levels. …
16th October 2024
Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already discounted in equities and the many looming risks. Much of …
15th October 2024
China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. The fairly muted reaction in China’s equity markets today were, at …
14th October 2024
Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a potential pause in the Fed’s incipient rate cutting cycle – …
11th October 2024
We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside risk from the Budget to our forecast for gilt yields to …
We expect sterling to weaken by ~4% against the euro and ~1% against the dollar by end-2025 . This reflects our view that the Bank of England will loosen monetary policy by more than what investors are anticipating, GBP’s high valuation and stretched …
The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We think both support our view that the 10-year Treasury yield …
10th October 2024
Market participants have largely shrugged off the news that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) may seek a court-ordered break up of Google. Given the snail’s pace at which the US antitrust process moves at, that probably makes sense. Even so, it’s worth …
9th October 2024
China’s offshore equity market plunged today as the latest policy announcement from Beijing disappointed expectations. With much of the low hanging fruit (as far as valuations are concerned) now plucked, we think the bar is quite high now for further …
8th October 2024
The optimism across US equity and corporate bond markets as the labour market proves resilient makes sense to us. We think it will continue, providing a tailwind for those assets. The blockbuster US employment report for September released on Friday …
7th October 2024
The strong reading on the US labour market released today has taken the 10-year Treasury yield towards our end-2024 forecast of 4%. We expect it to stay around this level, though the risks to the upside appear to have increased over recent weeks. Today's …
4th October 2024
The US dollar is on course for its best week in two years and looks to have found a near-term floor after its sharp fall in Q2. Today’s strong non-farm payrolls report (and robust ISM surveys earlier in the week), dovish signals from the ECB and the BoE, …
