The incoming economic data have been a lot more mixed recently, with the awful performance of exports and manufacturing, both dragged down by the dollar’s strength, now being compounded by a slowdown in employment growth. Although consumption growth could easily top 4% annualised in the third quarter, overall GDP growth will be nearer 2.0% and the slump in employment growth will definitely rattle Fed officials. Accordingly, we expect it will be early 2016 before the Fed hikes.
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