There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997/98 Asian crisis. The current bout of market turmoil, if it continues, might persuade the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates in September. Since that volatility doesn’t reflect any genuine economic slump, however, we wouldn’t be surprised if it proved short-lived leaving the way open for the Fed to begin raising rates at some point this year. Even a September rate hike is still a significant possibility if the turmoil abates over the remainder of this week.
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