We are now incorporating a further escalation in the trade war with China into our global forecasts. We think that will knock a few tenths off annual US GDP growth this year and next. Core PCE inflation will be stronger than we thought, but will remain below 2%. We still expect the Fed to lower rates by a cumulative 75bp, starting later this year.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services