If the Conservatives win a majority at the election on 12th December as the polls suggest, it could be the moment we move from a “repeated delay” Brexit scenario, in which demand continues to be hamstrung by Brexit uncertainty, to our deal scenario, in which we think GDP growth would pick up. But ambiguity on what the future looks like under Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal means uncertainty might not necessarily fade. In any case the further delay to Brexit will mean uncertainty remains high for the time being, which might mean the MPC takes a more dovish tone next Thursday. One or two members might even vote for a cut. But first there is a Rugby World Cup Final to attend to. Our economic analysis suggests it will be a good day for England.
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